[General Election Hotspot] Mapo-gap as Heated as Jongno... Rush of Incumbent Candidates Running

①Seoul - Jongno-gu, Mapo-gap
Jongno Election, Ruling and Opposition Parties Deliberate Customized Victory Strategies
Incumbent Lawmakers in Mapo-gap Eyeing Seats, Intra-Party Competition Heats Up

Editor's NoteThe 22nd general election on April 10 next year is just over six months away. We explore the electoral landscape by visiting key battlegrounds across major regions nationwide. We analyze the country region by region, focusing on areas where the ruling and opposition parties have closely contested races, where major candidates are running, or where internal party competition is intense.

Among the 49 seats allocated to Seoul (based on the 21st general election), the districts that neither party can afford to concede include Jongno-gu and Mapo-gap. Jongno is known as the "heart of politics," carrying political symbolism that goes beyond a simple victory.

Mapo-gap is one of the key areas the People Power Party is striving to reclaim. Incumbent lawmakers from both parties have already entered the nomination race in Mapo-gap. It is expected to be a fiercely contested district not only in the general election but also in the party primaries.

Jongno-gu is currently represented by Choi Jae-hyung of the People Power Party, a former head of the Board of Audit and Inspection, but the Democratic Party has won this district in the last three general elections: the 19th, 20th, and 21st.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Jongno, Choi Jae-hyung vs. Kwak Sang-eon showdown? ... Political heavyweights from both parties also mentioned

Jongno has traditionally been a conservative stronghold and a place where political heavyweights aspiring to the presidency have considered running. The Democratic Party's recent consecutive victories in the district were largely due to fielding presidential candidate-level politicians like Chung Sye-kyun and Lee Nak-yeon.

The People Power Party secured a comfortable win in the Jongno by-election held on March 9 last year, concurrent with the presidential election, by putting forward Choi Jae-hyung. At that time, the Democratic Party did not field a direct candidate; instead, Kim Young-jong, a former Jongno district mayor, ran as an independent against Choi.

Although the People Power Party reclaimed Jongno, it is noteworthy that it was not a direct face-off between the ruling and opposition parties.

The fact that two former presidents (Roh Moo-hyun and Lee Myung-bak) emerged from Jongno underscores the district's political significance.

In the 21st general election, the Democratic Party's Lee Nak-yeon won with 58.4% of the vote. The United Future Party (the predecessor of the People Power Party) also fielded Hwang Kyo-ahn, but he lost with 40.0% of the vote.

It will be interesting to see whether both parties will again field presidential candidate-level politicians or settle for a contest between local politicians. The People Power Party's incumbent Choi Jae-hyung is preparing to run, while the Democratic Party's local chairman, lawyer Kwak Sang-eon (son-in-law of former President Roh Moo-hyun), is cultivating his voter base.

Jongno is also attracting attention for the possible candidacies of heavyweight figures regardless of their own intentions. On the People Power Party side, Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon, who is currently leading the conservative camp's presidential race, is a potential candidate.

On the Democratic Party side, former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum, former Blue House Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok, and National Assembly Secretary-General Lee Kwang-jae are being mentioned regardless of their own willingness. There is also an internal party view that Representative Lee Jae-myung should leave Incheon and run in Seoul's Jongno.

Mapo-gap, five incumbent lawmakers from both parties preparing to run

Seoul's Mapo-gap is emerging as a new battleground for both parties in the 22nd general election. Mapo has been highlighted as a strategic stronghold for the People Power Party amid rising real estate prices, but it has shown a weak performance in general elections. Both Mapo-gap, represented by Roh Woong-rae, and Mapo-eul, represented by Chung Cheong-rae, have remained strongholds of the Democratic Party.

Mapo-gap is a district where Roh Woong-rae has been elected three consecutive times with over 50% of the vote in the 19th, 20th, and 21st general elections. In the 20th general election in 2016, the Saenuri Party (predecessor of the People Power Party) fielded former Supreme Court Justice Ahn Dae-hee with high expectations but was completely defeated by politician Roh Woong-rae.

The last victory for the People Power Party in Mapo-gap was in the 18th general election in 2008, when Kang Seung-gyu, currently the Senior Secretary for Civil Society at the Presidential Office under the Yoon Seok-youl administration, won as a candidate of the Hannara Party. However, it is worth noting that the 18th general election was an overall landslide victory for the Hannara Party in Seoul.

The 2024 Mapo-gap parliamentary election is expected to show a different trend from both 2008 and the 2020 general election. Both parties have reasons to be optimistic about victory, but conversely, neither can confidently claim a win.

Mapo-gap is known as a district where many incumbent lawmakers are preparing to run. This is partly related to the fact that incumbent Democratic Party lawmaker Roh Woong-rae is currently on trial for violations of the Political Funds Act.

The Democratic Party is preparing candidacies not only from Roh Woong-rae but also from proportional representative lawmaker Shin Hyun-young. This could lead to internal competition among incumbent lawmakers for the party nomination. Additionally, former lawmaker Kim Jin-ae, former Seoul Mayor's Secretary Oh Seong-gyu, former Mapo district mayor Yoo Dong-gyun, former Blue House Overseas Press Secretary Lee Ji-su, and former Blue House administrator Kim Bin are also mentioned as candidates.

On the People Power Party side, even more incumbents are focusing on Mapo-gap.

Lee Yong-ho, the party's only Honam region lawmaker, is considering running in Seoul's Mapo-gap, and proportional representative lawmaker Choi Seung-jae also hopes to run in Mapo-gap. Moreover, Cho Jung-hoon of the Transition Era party is preparing to run in Mapo-gap under the People Power Party banner. The People Power Party has agreed to merge with the Transition Era party in an absorption merger format. There is growing speculation that Cho Jung-hoon may receive the ruling party's nomination in Mapo-gap.

There is also a possibility that Kang Seung-gyu, who ran in Mapo-gap in the last general election, may leave the Presidential Office and return to the ruling party. The People Power Party's decision to postpone selecting the Mapo-gap organizational committee chairperson is related to the complex political dynamics within the party.

Mapo-gap is emerging as the most closely watched district in Seoul, where both parties are engaged in fierce internal nomination battles.