Kim Jong-un's Visit to Russia Raises Concerns Over Prolonged Ukraine War: "Russia Likely to Strengthen War of Attrition Strategy"

Soviet-Made Ammunition and Weapons Expected to Be Supplied to Russia
"Western Support Difficult if War of Attrition Prolongs"

With North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un's recent visit to Russia, it is anticipated that North Korea will begin large-scale arms supplies to Russia, which is expected to significantly impact the dynamics of the Ukraine war. Concerns are rising that if the Russian military, struggling with shortages of ammunition and weapons, secures Soviet-era weapons and ammunition possessed by North Korea, the war could be prolonged further.

On the afternoon of the 10th, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un is seen boarding a special train in Pyongyang to visit Russia. Pyongyang=Photo by Chosun Central News Agency and Yonhap News Agency

On the 11th (local time), Bloomberg News pointed out that if Chairman Kim formally signs an arms supply contract with Russia during this visit, Russia could secure the ammunition and weapons necessary to maintain the frontlines in the Ukraine war.

Bloomberg reported, "The Russian military is in urgent need of Soviet-era 152mm shells and 122mm rocket artillery ammunition, which are essential to repel Ukrainian offensives. North Korea holds large quantities of such shells and also possesses Soviet-era T-54 and T-62 tanks and their parts, meaning the Russian military can use these weapons immediately without additional training."

If North Korea becomes a new supply route for Russian weapons and ammunition, there are concerns that the Ukraine war will be further prolonged as it falls into Russia's war of attrition strategy.

Professor Terence Lowrick of the U.S. Naval War College explained in an interview with Bloomberg News, "Russia is leading the Ukraine war as a war of attrition, and North Korea's supply of vast amounts of Soviet-era ammunition and weapons that the Russian military can use immediately could further strengthen Russia's attrition strategy. If the war of attrition continues for a longer period, Western military support, which is essential for Ukraine's survival, may gradually become more difficult."