Min Jeong-hoon "Receiving Conventional Weapons and Transferring Advanced Technology?"
Cha Doo-hyun "Whether Russia Will Actually Provide Them Is Another Matter"
Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, is reported to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin from the 10th to the 13th of this month. Amid these reports, Kim revealed plans not only for the construction of the tactical nuclear attack submarine 'Kim Gun-ok Hero Ship' but also for a nuclear-powered submarine, drawing attention to whether Russia will transfer related advanced technologies. Experts are skeptical about whether such a deal will actually take place, as it is not economically viable for Russia to receive conventional weapons from North Korea in exchange for advanced technology.
Min Jeong-hoon, a professor at the Americas Research Department of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said on YTN's "News King with Park Ji-hoon" on the 8th, "From a strategic perspective, would it really be an equal exchange for Russia to receive conventional weapons from North Korea and transfer advanced technology in this situation?"
If a summit between General Secretary Kim and President Putin takes place, it is analyzed that Kim will demand advanced technologies such as nuclear-powered submarine technology and satellite technology from Russia in exchange for conventional weapons. The tactical nuclear attack submarine is a modified version of the medium-sized submarines North Korea currently possesses, but the planned nuclear-powered submarine would operate using a small nuclear reactor, making the transfer of Russian technology essential. North Korea presented "construction of a nuclear-powered submarine" as one of its five major defense tasks in 2021 but has yet to achieve it.
Professor Min points out that Russia is unlikely to easily transfer the necessary technology. He said, "Russians are very pragmatic. They are considering whether North Korea having such technology would be a plus or a minus for Russia. Because of this, we need to watch this situation more carefully."
Cha Doo-hyun, senior research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, also stated on his social media, "North Korea will build 2 to 3 more submarines of that type. This is a way to avoid leaving a blemish on Kim Jong-un's five-year new weapons development plan by not being able to build a nuclear-powered submarine within 1 to 2 years." He added, "The launch of that new submarine ultimately suggests that one of the technologies North Korea desperately wants from North Korea-Russia military cooperation is nuclear submarine design technology, but whether Russia will actually provide it is another matter." Even if North Korea wants it, it is uncertain whether Russia will provide it.
If North Korea succeeds in building a nuclear-powered submarine, experts evaluate that it could become a "game changer" capable of reversing the relationship between the United States and North Korea. This is because it would have the capability to launch submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) near the U.S. mainland while submerged. Professor Min said, "If they have such capabilities, as you mentioned, the U.S. would have no choice but to come to the negotiating table with North Korea as this would be a game changer in negotiations." He added, "Whether Russia will provide SLBM capabilities to North Korea is something to consider, but they might at least give a one-point lesson."
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