"North Korean Provocation Possibility Always Open"
Efforts to Advance Weaponry... Must Prepare for Changes in North Korean Provocation Scenarios
As South Korea and the United States commenced the joint exercise 'Ulchi Freedom Shield' (UFS) on the 21st, concerns have been raised about the possibility of provocations by North Korea in response. Experts believe there is a likelihood that North Korea may engage in military provocations.
Yang Wook, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, stated, "The possibility of North Korean provocations is always open," adding, "The important question is at what level they will act. For example, missile launches are certainly within their capability."
Appearing on SBS Radio's 'Kim Taehyun's Political Show' that day, Yang said, "This morning, Chairman Kim also visited a naval ship. For North Korea, it was quite a large vessel, appearing to be around 2,000 tons, but from our perspective, which possesses ships over 5,000 to 6,000 tons, it is laughable." He explained, "It seems they want to send messages like 'We can launch strategic missiles' or 'We can attack with nuclear warheads mounted on cruise missiles.' They will make tremendous efforts to convey the message that they have the capability to overwhelm you."
North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un inspected the naval fleet and observed a strategic weapons launch exercise in conjunction with the South Korea-U.S. joint exercise "Ulchi Freedom Shield" (UFS). According to the Korean Central News Agency on the 21st, Chairman Kim inspected the "2nd Guard Surface Ship Squadron of the East Sea Fleet of the Korean People's Navy." On the same day, Kim Jong Un also observed the strategic cruise missile launch training conducted by the patrol ship marines, the agency reported. [Image source=Yonhap News]
On the same day, the Korean Central News Agency reported that Kim Jong Un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, inspected the Guard 2nd Surface Combat Squadron of the East Sea Fleet of the Korean People's Navy and observed a strategic cruise missile launch drill. However, the date of the inspection was not disclosed.
Ban Gil-ju, a research professor at Korea University's Institute of International Affairs, noted that the news of North Korea's observation of the strategic cruise missile launch drill was reported on the day the South Korea-U.S. joint exercise began. Appearing on Yonhap News TV's 'News Focus,' Ban said, "It is clear that releasing the observation news on the first day of UFS is a form of check against the South Korea-U.S. joint exercise," adding, "Moreover, although there have been no statements from North Korea regarding the South Korea-U.S.-Japan summit, showing Chairman Kim's observation of the drill can be seen as sending an indirect message."
Ban analyzed that since the sea has always been a site of clashes even under the armistice regime and has been an area where North Korea has conducted provocations, the disclosure of this inspection news suggests a potential indication of provocations.
He also emphasized the need to pay attention to the strategic cruise missile revealed by North Korea this time. Ban said, "Looking at the surface ship that Chairman Kim inspected, unlike previous North Korean vessels, there is a clear effort to modernize significantly. The ship itself is equipped with launchers to fire strategic cruise missiles and appears to have fire control radar," adding, "This means that North Korea's future provocation scenarios and options could differ from what we have seen so far."
Ban stressed, "The reason North Korean forces were always defeated by South Korean forces in naval battles such as the Battle of Daecheong and the First and Second Battles of Yeonpyeong was due to differences in weapon systems," explaining, "North Korea lacked fire control radar and operated everything manually, resulting in low accuracy. However, with changes such as the possession of fire control radar, we now face the challenge of devising new countermeasures in response to the evolving North Korean military."
North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un inspected the naval fleet and observed training involving the launch of strategic weapons from warships in response to the South Korea-U.S. joint exercise "Ulchi Freedom Shield" (UFS), according to Korean Central Television (KCTV) on the 21st. KCTV released footage of the strategic cruise missile launch scene (left) and the ground launch of the strategic cruise missile "Hwasal-2" on January 25 of last year. [Image source: KCTV screen, Yonhap News]
However, the Joint Chiefs of Staff responded to North Korean state media reports claiming that the strategic cruise missile launch drill was perfectly conducted under Chairman Kim's observation by stating, "There are many exaggerated and factually incorrect parts," and added, "South Korea and the U.S. detected related signs in advance and were monitoring in real time."
In a press notice to reporters that day, the Joint Chiefs said, "Our military will thoroughly and intensively conduct the planned joint exercises and training under a firm combined defense posture, maintaining a solid readiness posture based on the capability to overwhelmingly respond to any provocations by North Korea."
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