As extreme heatwaves continue around the world, the U.S. scientific community has projected a 99% probability that this year will be the hottest year in history.
On the 15th (local time), the U.S. online media Axios reported, citing reports released by three organizations: the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the U.S. nonprofit environmental science organization Berkeley Earth.
Amid a nationwide heatwave, on the morning of the 1st, a delivery worker relying on fan breeze is sorting and delivering post office parcels at the Dong Seoul Postal Logistics Center in Gwangjin-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jo Yongjun jun21@
NOAA estimated a 46.8% chance that 2023 will be the hottest year on record. Earlier, in June, NOAA had estimated the probability of 2023 being the hottest year at 20.2%, more than doubling the likelihood in just over a month.
Last month was recorded as the hottest July ever, raising concerns about the heat for the entire year. According to NOAA’s report, the average global surface temperature in July this year was 2.02 degrees Fahrenheit (1.12 degrees Celsius) above average, marking the hottest July in 174 years of records.
Not only land but also sea surface temperatures reached record highs. The combination of global warming and El Ni?o contributed to the record-breaking heat, with the El Ni?o phenomenon continuing to strengthen and expected to persist into next year.
Sarah Kapnick, NOAA’s lead scientist, stated during a briefing that there have been 533 consecutive months hotter than the 20th-century average temperature, and July temperatures have been higher than the 20th-century average for 47 consecutive years.
Berkeley Earth, the U.S. nonprofit environmental science organization, also analyzed the data using its own methods and concluded there is a 99% probability that this year will be the hottest year on record.
Earlier this summer, tens of millions of people received heat warnings, and hundreds of heat-related illnesses and death reports were recorded.
Last month in Los Angeles, California, USA, a woman was walking while shielding herself from the sunlight with her clothes. [Photo by Yonhap News]
In the U.S., studies show that heat-related deaths exceed those caused by hurricanes, tornadoes, and lightning combined. On July 14, the National Weather Service issued heat warnings and advisories for 16 southwestern states, affecting approximately 113 million people?over one-third of the U.S. population?who were under the influence of the heatwave.
India has also experienced continuous heatwaves since an abnormal heatwave in February, the worst in 122 years. Temperatures in major cities like Mumbai have reached 45 degrees Celsius.
In China, heatwaves persisted through July, with northern regions such as Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei Province, and Shandong Province recording the highest number of days above 35 degrees Celsius ever. As a result, heat warnings were issued in 43 regions.
Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at NASA, predicted, "This year is not only exceptionally warm and likely the hottest year on record, but next year is expected to be even hotter."
Axios reported, "The global average temperature rise due to the early El Ni?o phenomenon will only be fully felt next year, making these observations significant."
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