What If the General Election Were Tomorrow?... People Power Party 31.3%, Democratic Party 27.4%

Yonhap News·Yonhap News TV Poll
Ruling and Opposition Parties Neck-and-Neck in Seoul and Capital Area Among 20s
'Regime Check' 44.9% 'Regime Support' 40.2%

A public opinion poll released on the 9th showed that the People Power Party is leading the Democratic Party within the margin of error regarding voters' choices in the 22nd general election scheduled for April next year.

According to a regular public opinion poll conducted by Matrix, commissioned jointly by Yonhap News Agency and Yonhap News TV, from the 5th to 6th of this month targeting 1,000 men and women nationwide aged 18 and older (with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points), 31.3% responded that they would vote for a People Power Party candidate if the general election were held tomorrow. Meanwhile, 27.4% said they would vote for a Democratic Party candidate.

Compared to the previous survey conducted on the 1st and 2nd of last month, the People Power Party rose by 1.8 percentage points, while the Democratic Party dropped by 3.2 percentage points, reversing their rankings. The gap was 3.9 percentage points, which is within the margin of error.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The percentage of respondents who said they have 'no preferred party' was 17.8%, down 6.3 percentage points from the previous month's 24.1%. Those who said they would vote for the Justice Party candidate accounted for 2.7%, and other parties accounted for 6.7%. Those who said they had 'no intention to vote' were 9.1%, and 'don't know/no response' was 5.0%.

Specifically, among those who gave a positive evaluation of President Yoon Seok-yeol's job performance, 71.7% said they would vote for the People Power Party, while only 3.8% said they would vote for the Democratic Party candidate.

Among those who gave a negative evaluation of President Yoon's job performance, 47.1% said they would cast their vote for the Democratic Party candidate. Only 4.6% said they would choose the People Power Party candidate.

Comparing this with party support rates conducted in the same survey, 76.3% of respondents who said they support the People Power Party said they would vote for the People Power Party, and 75.8% of respondents who said they support the Democratic Party said they would vote for the Democratic Party.

By region, a close race was seen in Seoul (People Power Party 28.7%, Democratic Party 27.7%) and Incheon/Gyeonggi (People Power Party 30.7%, Democratic Party 28.8%). The People Power Party led in Daejeon/Sejong/Chungcheong (People Power Party 40.0%, Democratic Party 30.5%), Daegu/Gyeongbuk (People Power Party 51.6%, Democratic Party 13.5%), and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam (People Power Party 35.7%, Democratic Party 23.8%), while the Democratic Party showed superiority in Gwangju/Jeolla (People Power Party 7.9%, Democratic Party 36.5%) and Gangwon/Jeju (People Power Party 17.1%, Democratic Party 31.3%).

By age group, 53.3% of those aged 60 and over said they would vote for the People Power Party, while 19.4% said they would vote for the Democratic Party. Compared to last month’s survey of those aged 60 and over (People Power Party 47.6%, Democratic Party 23.6%), the gap between the two sides widened.

The Democratic Party was dominant among those in their 30s (People Power Party 13.5%, Democratic Party 28.5%), 40s (People Power Party 20.2%, Democratic Party 31.5%), and 50s (People Power Party 27.6%, Democratic Party 37.4%). In the 18-29 age group, it was a close race (People Power Party 22.9%, Democratic Party 24.8%).

Regarding next year’s general election, the 'anti-government sentiment' and 'pro-government sentiment' were evenly matched within the margin of error. In response to the question about the desirable composition of the National Assembly through next year’s general election, 44.9% answered that the opposition party should become the majority to check the government and ruling party, while 40.2% said the ruling party should become the majority to support national governance. 'Don't know/no response' accounted for 14.9%.

This survey was conducted via telephone interviews using virtual mobile phone numbers (100%), with a response rate of 14.5%. For more detailed information, please refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission.