[News in War History] Saudi Arabia, 3rd Largest Defense Budget Worldwide, Why Is It Losing to Yemen Rebels?

Bin Salman - US White House Advisor Discuss Yemen War
Despite 3rd Largest Defense Budget, Repeated Defeats to Houthi Forces
Low Morale Mercenary Units Amid Noble Commanders' Arbitrary Control

Jake Sullivan, the U.S. White House National Security Advisor, made a sudden visit to Saudi Arabia and reportedly discussed the Yemen civil war issue with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, drawing international attention. The U.S. government is currently encouraging both Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Houthi rebels to take advantage of the ongoing ceasefire and move towards ending the war.

Saudi Arabia has the world's third-largest defense budget and imports nearly all advanced weapons globally, yet it has struggled for nine years against the relatively underdeveloped Yemeni Houthi rebels. In fact, Saudi forces have suffered repeated defeats and are primarily engaged in defending their borders to prevent the Houthis from advancing further.

Why does the Saudi military, which is comparable to a major power in terms of economic scale, population, and military strength, perform so poorly? In this article, we will explore the historical background of Saudi Arabia's founding and why the Saudi military is often called the 'Tang Dynasty army' of the Middle East.

◆News: U.S. White House National Security Advisor Discusses Yemen War with Bin Salman

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

On the 27th (local time), Advisor Sullivan visited Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The White House issued a statement saying, "Advisor Sullivan visited Jeddah to discuss bilateral and regional issues, including initiatives to develop a shared vision for peace with Prime Minister and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and senior Saudi officials."

The White House further stated, "Advisor Sullivan also welcomed significant progress based on the benefits of the Yemen ceasefire that has endured for the past 16 months and ongoing UN-led efforts to end the war. The delegations agreed to maintain regular consultations and follow up on the matters discussed." Ultimately, the main topics were the Yemen civil war and Saudi Arabia's security concerns.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Saudi Arabia's defense budget last year was approximately $75 billion (about 96 trillion KRW), ranking around fifth globally. Before the launch of large-scale national projects like Neom City, Saudi Arabia ranked third worldwide after the U.S. and China. Notably, over 8% of the country's GDP is allocated to defense, maintaining a full wartime footing.

Despite this, Saudi Arabia struggles to gain the upper hand against the much smaller Yemeni Houthi rebels in terms of economy, population, and territory. The war with the Houthis has lasted over nine years, but Saudi forces have barely managed to defend their territory amid repeated defeats. Why can't they defeat a single rebel group despite such a massive defense budget?

◆History 1: Saudi Dynasty Founded After 200 Years of Independence Wars Amid Frequent Defeats

The image shows King Abdulaziz ibn Saud (right in the photo), known as the founder of modern Saudi Arabia.

To understand why the Saudi military, despite enormous spending, is called the weak 'Tang Dynasty army' of the Middle East, we need to look at the country's founding history. The history of Saudi Arabia's founding is closely tied to the history of the Saudi dynasty.

The Saudi dynasty currently ruling Saudi Arabia began in earnest in the 18th century. In the mid-18th century, an Arab religious scholar named Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab initiated the 'Wahhabism' movement. Wahhabism is an Islamic religious movement rooted in Sunni fundamentalism, advocating a return to Islamic fundamentals and Arab nationalism, opposing the Ottoman Turkish Empire that ruled the Arabian Peninsula at the time.

One of the key figures who actively joined this movement was a local ruler named Muhammad bin Saud. He governed a small oasis town called Diriyah in the Arabian desert. In 1744, he joined the Wahhabism movement, revolted against the Ottoman Turkish Empire, and established the Diriyah Kingdom, the foundation of the Saudi dynasty. As various local rulers in central Arabia joined his uprising, the Saudi dynasty quickly became a threat to the Ottoman Empire's rear.

At that time, the Ottoman Empire was preoccupied with wars against Russia and Austria and could not focus on the Saudi uprising. The Ottoman governor of Egypt, Muhammad Ali Pasha, was ordered to mobilize troops to suppress Diriyah. In 1808, he successfully captured Diriyah with Egyptian forces, and Muhammad bin Saud was taken to Istanbul, the Ottoman capital, where he was executed. The first Saudi dynasty thus ended in a devastating military defeat.

Surviving descendants of the Saudi royal family established the second Saudi dynasty in 1818, but it too was defeated and dissolved in 1891 by a coalition of Egyptian and Ottoman vassal states. The current Saudi dynasty, the third Saudi dynasty, was founded by Abdul-Aziz bin Abdulrahman Ibn Saud, the fifth-generation descendant of Muhammad bin Saud.

During World War I, when the Ottoman Empire was distracted and neglecting the Arabian Peninsula, Abdul-Aziz united surrounding principalities and successfully gained independence. In 1932, he officially proclaimed the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, uniting the entire region. This kingdom was established after a persistent 200-year struggle for independence.

The repeated defeats during the Saudi royal family's independence wars are believed to be due to the fact that most soldiers involved were mercenaries, with limitations in morale and unity. Even the third Saudi dynasty reportedly relied on troops borrowed from the Kingdom of Kuwait.

◆History 2: Continued Reliance on Mercenaries and Persistent Noble Commanders' Dominance

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

After its founding, Saudi Arabia experienced long periods of peace. Since oil was discovered in 1938, it has become the world's largest oil producer, leading to increased public indifference toward national defense. Although conscription was repeatedly considered to strengthen military power, it was consistently rejected due to strong public opposition.

As a result, most of the military forces still rely on mercenaries. The Saudi military is estimated to number around 250,000 to 270,000 personnel, most of whom are foreign mercenaries. These mercenaries come from extremely poor neighboring countries such as Pakistan and Sudan in Africa.

With intensified fighting against the Yemeni Houthi rebels, the recruitment of mercenaries has increased significantly. According to The New York Times (NYT), in 2016 alone, over 14,000 mercenaries from Sudan were paid by Saudi Arabia and deployed to the Yemeni frontlines. Saudi forces reportedly paid each soldier $10,000, an unimaginable sum in those impoverished countries.

These mercenary forces are equipped with the most advanced weapons imported by Saudi Arabia from the U.S. and other countries worldwide. The Saudi military possesses a powerful air force with over 1,800 aircraft, including F-15s, Eurofighters, Panavia Tornados, aerial refueling tankers, and early warning control aircraft. It also has more than 4,200 armored vehicles, about 1,300 tanks, and around 70 combat ships, which is notable among Middle Eastern countries with minimal navies. Yet, they still suffer defeats against the Houthis and remain confined to border defense.

In September 2019, the Yemeni Houthi rebels released a video claiming to have captured over 2,000 Saudi soldiers, causing international embarrassment. There have been incidents where armored vehicles accidentally collided with friendly units while retreating, or expensive U.S.-imported Abrams tanks charged into enemy lines without proper reconnaissance, resulting in the loss of more than ten tanks at once. These losses were due to reckless mass offensives without proper tactics or strategy.

◆Implication: War Is Fought by 'People,' Not Just Weapons

The image shows a Saudi military armored vehicle that was airstriked by the Yemeni Houthi forces. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Ultimately, this teaches us that no matter how advanced the weapons or how much money is spent, an army without the will to fight is unlikely to win. It echoes the words of Mao Zedong, the founding father of modern China: "Weapons are an important element of war, but not the decisive one. The decisive factor is ultimately the people."

The Saudi government is trying to reform its ragtag army, but it is a difficult task. Military reform requires first stopping the current war and reorganizing the forces, but it is hard to find the time. This is likely why Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has personally taken steps to broker peace with Iran and Israel.

Even if peace is established and time is gained for military reform, a shortage of capable commanders remains a major problem. In February 2018, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, frustrated by continuous military failures, replaced all military commanders, but it had little effect.

Most of the Saudi military leadership, including commanders, are royal family members or nobles who have no war experience and little interest in military affairs. Many Saudi generals have risen to command without the will or effort to become military experts, making military reform extremely challenging. This ultimately reminds us that morale and willpower are more important than anything else in an army.