US Q2 GDP Growth Rate 2.4%... Exceeds Market Expectations

The United States' GDP growth rate for the second quarter of this year was recorded at an annualized rate of 2.4%. This exceeded market expectations of 1.8-2.0% and was higher than the first quarter's growth rate of 2.0% annualized.

Container Ships Protesting in Los Angeles, USA
Photo by Reuters-Yonhap News

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 27th (local time) that the second quarter GDP growth rate was 2.4% annualized. However, this is a preliminary figure and may be revised in subsequent estimates or final reports. The annualized rate refers to the growth rate compared to the previous quarter, converted to an annual basis. While the quarter-on-quarter growth rate reflects the actual economic performance for that quarter, the annualized rate assumes that the growth rate for that quarter continues for a full year.

Along with the GDP growth rate, all other U.S. economic indicators released that day showed more positive results than market forecasts. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that new weekly unemployment claims last week totaled 221,000. This figure was below the market expectation of 235,000 and about 7,000 fewer than the previous week's 228,000 claims.

Additionally, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported a goods trade deficit of $87.84 billion for June. This also outperformed market expectations of an $91.8 billion deficit and improved from the $91.13 billion deficit recorded in May.

These data support recent observations that the U.S. economy will avoid recession despite high interest rates and rising unemployment. In a recent Bloomberg survey, economists estimated the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next 12 months at 58%, significantly down from 70% in December of last year.