[Politics X-File] Daegu and Gwangju, All-In Strategy for the General Election... A Dazzling Reversal

(28) Yeonam and Yeongnam Political Strongholds, Recognized as Goldmines in General Elections
1996 New Korea Party, 2016 Democratic Party Defeats
'Nomination Turmoil = Shortcut to Defeat' General Election Equation Formed

Editor's Note"Political X-Files" is a series project that delivers "unprecedented stories" recorded in the election results and incidents of Korean politics.

When regional politics were intense, predicting the number of seats in the general election was relatively straightforward. It was assumed that Yeongnam would mostly be taken by conservative parties that have maintained their legacy, Honam by parties affiliated with the current Democratic Party of Korea, and Chungcheong, Gangwon, and Jeju would be split evenly.

Under this assumption, the difference in seats in the metropolitan area would determine the overall number of seats. Since Yeongnam is basically allocated more seats than Honam, the Democratic Party must perform well in the metropolitan area to secure their targeted seats. The conservative party would have little difficulty becoming the largest party in the National Assembly by just maintaining the "baseline" in the metropolitan area.

This is why fierce battles over the metropolitan area have continued in every general election.

However, the influence of regional politics, which once raged fiercely, has gradually weakened. The metropolitan area is no longer a stronghold of the Democratic Party as it used to be. Yeongnam and Honam also show signs of weakening grounds for the "all-in" theory for a specific party in general elections. Yet, there remains a region perceived as the last stronghold.

From the perspective of the People Power Party, it is Daegu; from the Democratic Party's perspective, it is Gwangju. These cities represent Yeongnam and Honam respectively and are the political strongholds among strongholds. In fact, looking at the results of the most recent general election, the 21st general election in 2020, they did not disappoint the expectations of both parties.

The United Future Party (the predecessor of the People Power Party) won 11 out of 12 seats allocated to Daegu. The Democratic Party swept all 8 seats allocated to Gwangju. Daegu and Gwangju played a significant role as gold mines for both parties in the general election.

Unlike in Busan, where the United Future Party conceded 3 out of 18 seats to the Democratic Party, Daegu did not allow the Democratic Party to enter. Likewise, Gwangju was an impregnable fortress for the United Future Party.

These general election results are the reason why Daegu and Gwangju are perceived as regions that concentrate gold badges for specific parties in general elections, in other words, the origin of the "all-in" theory for general elections.

On the afternoon of April 15, 2020, vote counting was underway at the 4.15 general election counting center set up at the Manchon Inline Roller Skating Rink in Suseong-gu, Daegu. [Image source=Yonhap News]

So, were Daegu and Gwangju truly the foundation of a gold mine where specific parties won consecutive victories in actual general elections?

During the Kim Young-sam administration in the 15th general election in 1996, the ruling party at the time, the New Korea Party (the predecessor of the People Power Party), comfortably became the largest party in the general election by winning twice as many constituency seats as the National Congress for New Politics (the predecessor of the Democratic Party).

They achieved a landslide victory by sweeping all 21 seats allocated to Busan. However, the New Korea Party experienced a crushing defeat in Daegu, the core stronghold of conservative politics. They won only 2 out of 13 seats allocated to Daegu.

The United Liberal Democrats (ULD) secured 8 seats in Daegu, becoming the dominant party in the region, and independents won 3 seats, more than the New Korea Party. This was the worst general election result for a party claiming to be the mainstream of conservative politics in Daegu.

On April 9, 2020, the early voting station for the 21st National Assembly election was set up at the G check-in counter in the departure hall of Terminal 1 at Incheon International Airport. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

At least the New Korea Party managed to win some seats, though it was disappointing. The reality experienced by the Democratic Party in Gwangju in 2016 was even more devastating. In the 20th general election in 2016, the Democratic Party also became the largest party in the National Assembly. While they could have enjoyed the joy of victory, the news from Gwangju was chilling.

At that time, the Democratic Party failed to win a single seat out of the 8 allocated to Gwangju, suffering the humiliation of zero seats. The Democratic Party had to watch the People's Party sweep all 8 seats in Gwangju. This was the worst election result in the Democratic Party's history in Gwangju.

The common factor in the crushing defeats experienced by the New Korea Party in Daegu in 1996 and the Democratic Party in Gwangju in 2016 was nomination disputes. Internal party turmoil over nominations spread uncontrollably, resulting in bitter election outcomes. Even places perceived as political strongholds like Daegu and Gwangju were no exception.

If cracks appear in political strongholds once regarded as gold mines in general elections, causing defeat, the shockwave can only be greater. It will be interesting to see what situation unfolds in the 22nd general election on April 10 next year.