[Insight & Opinion] In the Age of AI, We Must Create Jobs Aligned with Future Directions

The future is uncertain. It is impossible to predict the future accurately. Therefore, the exactness of numerical forecasts about the future is not that important. However, attention and interest should be paid to the direction these numbers suggest for the future. Knowing the direction greatly helps in properly preparing for the future.

In the 2018 report "The Future of Work" published by the World Economic Forum, an interesting figure is presented. It analyzed that the ratio of human labor to machine labor was 71:29 in 2018, changing to 60:40 by 2022. This clearly shows the future direction of labor. The author predicts that by around 2033, ten years from now, the ratio of human labor to machine labor will be approximately 30:70.

Job issues are currently the biggest challenge in our society. They will remain the most significant problem to solve even ten years from now. On one hand, it is necessary to solve the numerous current challenges surrounding jobs, and on the other hand, it is important to look at the job issue with a long-term perspective and seek mid- to long-term measures.

Examples showing dramatic shifts in job directions are emerging one after another. There are factories producing thousands of cars daily but employing only dozens of people. In distribution warehouses the size of 100 soccer fields, only autonomous transport robots work, making it difficult to find any humans. In such places, the proportion of human labor is already less than 0.1%.

What will the future of work look like around ten years from now? It seems clear that the proportion of human labor will decrease significantly while AI-based machines and robots will take on a much larger share of labor. Consequently, the traditional work hours of 8 hours a day, 5 days a week may be reduced to 3-4 hours a day, 3-4 days a week. Employment flexibility will also increase, with the proportion of contract workers and freelancers hired for specific periods gradually rising. In the United States, about 40% of the 200 million economically active population are already freelancers.

With the spread of AI, most jobs that people have long performed, whether simple tasks or professional work, are expected to decrease or transform. However, many new and increasing jobs will emerge as well. One type involves working collaboratively with AI or intelligent robots. Another involves jobs related to uniquely human traits beyond machines, such as creativity, emotion, and relationships. In particular, jobs in creative labor, emotional labor, caregiving labor, education, and physical and mental health are expected to increase significantly. As a reaction to the spread of AI, the proportion of emotion-based human labor will gradually rise compared to reason-based technical labor.

Fundamental changes are also expected in who will work. Until now, the main source of labor has been the economically active population aged 18 to 64. In the future, two entirely different resources will be added. One is economic activity by AI and robots. The other is healthy and capable elderly people over their 60s. It will become common and natural for people in their 70s and 80s to work.

The best way to foresee the future is said to be creating the future. Socially, let us collectively strive to create jobs that align with future directions. Individually, let us find and create work that suits ourselves while aligning with the future direction with a long-term perspective.

Kim Hyungon, Director of the National Assembly Futures Institute