Japan Builds Civil Evacuation Facilities on Nansei Islands... Preparing for China's Taiwan Invasion

"Near Taiwan, the Nanshi Islands Will Be Affected"
However, Military Action Is Unlikely in Case of Taiwan Invasion

The Japanese government is reportedly planning to establish evacuation facilities for residents on Miyakojima (宮古島), an island in the Nansei Islands close to Taiwan. This is in preparation for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

According to a report by the Yomiuri Shimbun on the 23rd, the Japanese government plans to include the cost of improving evacuation facilities on Miyakojima in next year’s budget.

Earlier, the Miyakojima local government had already requested financial support from the Ministry of Defense in June to secure evacuation facilities. The planned gymnasium’s basement will be equipped with stockpiles and self-generators to accommodate about 4,500 people for three days.

The Nansei Islands refer to the islands stretching from southern Kyushu in southwestern Japan to east of Taiwan. In December last year, Japan revised its National Security Strategy and set a plan to secure various evacuation facilities centered on the Nansei Islands.

The Japanese government also intends to expedite the improvement of evacuation facilities on Yonagunijima (?那?島), the westernmost island only about 110 km from Taiwan, and Ishigakijima (石垣島), another island in the Nansei Islands.

[Image source=Google Map capture]

On the 22nd, Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno Hirokazu visited Ishigakijima, confirmed the resident evacuation system in case of an emergency in Taiwan, and reportedly heard requests from local government heads for the improvement of evacuation facilities and the expansion of evacuation airports and port facilities.

The Yomiuri described this move by the Japanese government as “a response to concerns that the Nansei Islands could be affected if China invades Taiwan.”

Meanwhile, on the 15th (local time), the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that “the likelihood of Japan taking military action in the event of a Chinese armed invasion of Taiwan is low.”

The WSJ cited analyses from experts in the field, noting that over the past year, the United States has requested Japan to deploy military forces for searching Chinese submarines appearing around the Taiwan Strait, but so far, Japan has not contributed.

The Japanese government is also avoiding making a clear statement about its role in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This is analyzed as reflecting domestic public opinion in Japan, which dislikes being involved in international conflicts that have little direct connection to Japan.

Satoru Mori, a political science PhD from Keio University, predicted, “If asked whether they would risk their lives to protect Taiwan, about 90% of Japanese people would answer ‘No.’”

However, the WSJ forecasted that given the close proximity between Japan and Taiwan and the current long-term stationing of 54,000 U.S. troops on Okinawa Island, “it would be difficult for the U.S. to exclude Japan’s role in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.”