"Only 20% Youth Unemployment?" Confession of Conscience by Chinese Professor

Jang Dan-dan Beijing University Professors Claim
"More Than Twice Official Chinese Statistics"
Current Unemployment Rate Excludes Tangping and Kangaroo Generation

As China's youth unemployment rate continues to hit new monthly highs, claims have emerged that the actual youth unemployment rate far exceeds official statistics, drawing significant attention.

According to the Chinese economic media 'Caixin' on the 20th (local time), Professor Zhang Dandan's team at Peking University asserted that as of March, the youth unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24 in China reached 46.5%.

Professor Zhang's team's analysis is more than double the youth unemployment rate compiled monthly by China's National Bureau of Statistics. The official youth unemployment rate was 19.6% in March and rose to a record high of 21.3% last month.

Regarding this, Professor Zhang explained, "The number of young people who are part of the Tangping (lying flat, meaning doing nothing) group and the 'Kangaroo group' who depend on their parents for living reaches 16 million. Including them as unemployed, the actual youth unemployment rate in China in March is 46.5%, far exceeding the official figure of 19.6% announced during the same period."

The youth unemployment rate in China has exceeded 20% for three consecutive months, setting a new record high.

Typically, the unemployment rate is calculated as the ratio of unemployed individuals to the economically active population (employed + unemployed). However, those who have completely given up job searching or are not working are classified as 'non-labor force' and excluded from the numerator.

According to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics on youth unemployment in March, the total youth population aged 16 to 24 was 96 million, of which 32 million were part of the labor force and 64 million were non-labor force.

Most of the non-labor force population are students (48 million). However, 16 million are Tangping group, Kangaroo group, and others who lack the will to seek employment. Authorities explain that these individuals are classified as 'non-labor force' because they are "either preparing for employment, studying, or engaged in household duties and thus not participating in the labor market," and therefore are not counted as unemployed.

However, Professor Zhang's team points out that the Tangping group, Kangaroo group, and others are simply those pushed out of the job market due to severe employment difficulties. Since they are willing to return to the labor market whenever an opportunity arises, they should be included in the labor force. Based on this argument, recalculating the unemployment rate shows that the actual youth unemployment rate has exceeded 40%, according to Professor Zhang.

Professor Zhang diagnosed that China's youth unemployment problem largely stems from the Chinese authorities' 'Zero COVID' policy during the COVID-19 outbreak. He also suggested that to resolve the youth unemployment issue, university graduates should lower their expectations regarding employment and salary conditions to get jobs first and then be encouraged to transition to better positions.