[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] What Are the Chances of Releasing the Defected USFK Soldier?

Possibility of Background Checks After Defection... No Official Confirmation Yet

Private Travis King of the U.S. military crossing over to North Korea at the Joint Security Area (JSA) in Panmunjom has been assessed as a "voluntary defection to the North."

As tours of the Joint Security Area (JSA) in Panmunjom have resumed, on the 19th, North Korean residents can be seen in the Kijeong-dong village of North Korea, viewed from the 3rd guard post in Panmunjom, Paju-si, Gyeonggi-do. Photo by Joint Press Corps

On the 19th, Shin Beom-chul, Deputy Minister of National Defense, said in an interview with ‘SBS Kim Tae-hyun’s Political Show,’ "The soldier was scheduled to be repatriated to the U.S. mainland but crossed over without permission," adding, "He made the decision independently, so it can only be seen as a voluntary defection to the North." He continued, "I understand that the U.S. side is currently confirming with the North through the UN Command channel." This appears to be a response indicating that the U.S. is verifying the soldier’s status with the North via communication channels such as the North Korean military-UN Command direct hotline.

When asked if negotiations for repatriation might take place, Deputy Minister Shin said, "We will keep the possibility open and approach it accordingly," adding, "From the U.S. standpoint, it seems they will prioritize the soldier’s safety and make efforts to bring him back." To conduct negotiations, the U.S. is expected to deploy the Commander of U.S. Forces Korea, who also serves as the UN Command Commander. Apart from military approaches, there is also a possibility of exploring negotiations with North Korea through diplomatic channels. In this case, North Korea could hold the pretext of cooperating on humanitarian grounds and respond to sudden talks with the U.S.

If voluntary defection is confirmed, North Korea may use it for regime propaganda and then try the soldier in North Korea
Possibility of returning him due to past assault charges against the U.S. soldier
Attempting negotiations while controlling military provocations under the pretext of defection

The issue lies with North Korea. As of 1 p.m., no reports about the incident have appeared in North Korean media. It is presumed that North Korea is investigating the identity of the defecting U.S. soldier, his motives and background for entering the North, and the authenticity of his voluntary defection.

When Korean-American human rights activist Robert Park entered North Korea on December 24, 2009, North Korea detained him and officially confirmed his detention five days later through a report by the Korean Central News Agency. After 42 days of detention, on February 5, 2010, the Korean Central News Agency announced his release decision, and Robert Park was freed to China the next day.

After completing the investigation, North Korea may try to use the U.S. soldier’s voluntary defection for regime propaganda. Although there are cases of long-term detention against the person’s will, these usually involve trials in North Korea.

A representative case is Korean-American missionary Kenneth Bae (Korean name Bae Jun-ho), who entered North Korea in November 2012, was detained, sentenced to 15 years of labor reform, and imprisoned, but was only released in November 2014. Considering foreign media reports that the defecting U.S. soldier had a history of being arrested in South Korea on assault charges and was scheduled to be transferred to the U.S. for additional disciplinary action, there is a non-negligible possibility that North Korea may refuse to accept him and send him back.

If North Korea intends to return the defecting soldier, it is highly likely they will use this process as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S. There are many precedents where high-ranking U.S. officials directly visited North Korea to negotiate for the release of detained Americans.

Robert Park, the Korean-American human rights activist who entered North Korea without permission in December 2009, was released after 42 days. At that time, North Korea-U.S. relations were gradually thawing, with President Barack Obama’s personal letter delivered to Kim Jong-il, so it is analyzed that North Korea sought to quickly resolve the issue, which could have been an obstacle to the warming mood.

Earlier, in March 2009, two American journalists detained while reporting near the North Korea-China border were released after former U.S. President Bill Clinton personally visited North Korea in August of the same year and met with Kim Jong-il. This was a time when North Korea needed a pretext to release the American journalists, and the U.S. needed to maintain various efforts toward North Korea without interruption, so both sides’ interests aligned.

Since the U.S. is expected to mobilize not only the UN Command at Panmunjom but also the UN in New York, Chinese channels, and even Sweden, which represents U.S. interests in North Korea, to protect its citizen, North Korea is expected to follow procedures and observe how the U.S. responds.

Of course, even if contact is made between North Korea and the U.S. for the repatriation of the defecting U.S. soldier, the possibility of it leading to denuclearization talks is slim. However, there is speculation that it could serve as a catalyst to break the deadlock in the already very cold North Korea-U.S. dialogue. If North Korea intends to use the U.S. soldier defection incident as an opportunity for dialogue with the U.S., it is also analyzed that they may adjust the level of provocations accordingly.

North Korea launched a surprise ballistic missile early this morning in protest against the first meeting of the South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) and the domestic port call of a U.S. strategic nuclear submarine (SSBN), but this is believed to have been a planned schedule. Going forward, it is implied that North Korea may appropriately use the defection card while controlling the pace of provocations.