[Reading Science] In 10 Years, South Korea's Science and Technology Talent Will Dry Up

Number of Science and Engineering University Students Expected to Decrease by One-Third
'Population Cliff' Era Deals Critical Blow to Securing Science and Technology Workforce
"Urgent Measures Like Curriculum Reform Needed for Fundamental Change"

Total fertility rate of 0.78 (2022), aging index of 1.67 (number of elderly aged 65 and over per one youth, 2023). This is the reality of South Korea in the era of the population cliff. For a society to continue developing and expanding in scale at the current technological level, it requires an increase in talent pools across various fields, maintenance or growth of the productive workforce, and productivity enhancement. However, the population cliff, which will block all of these, is approaching like a time bomb. Especially with the advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution era, where advanced science and technology will determine the fate of nations, securing talent in science and engineering has become an urgent issue.

How Severe is the Shortage?

The shortage of talent in advanced fields such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI) is a global phenomenon. Last year, the United States enacted the CHIPS and Science Act to secure semiconductor supply chains, projecting a need for an additional 300,000 workers in semiconductors alone and 1 million in AI by 2029. China reports a shortage of 250,000 semiconductor specialists (as of 2021) and 5 million AI specialists (as of 2022). South Korea requires 177,000 semiconductor professionals (2021) and 30,000 AI experts (2022). Japan is expected to face a shortage of 270,000 AI professionals by 2030. Taiwan also experiences workforce shortages, with semiconductor personnel shortages increasing by 44% compared to the previous year as of August 2021.

Consequently, competition for talent among domestic and international companies is fierce. In South Korea, after Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong emphasized talent acquisition last August, a full-scale effort has been underway, including the Technology Career (T&C) Forum involving key executives. Hyundai Motor Group held the country's first overseas PhD talent recruitment event (Hyundai Vision Conference). LG Group hosted the first AI Graduate School Symposium among private companies. Overseas companies are also aggressively recruiting Korean talent. Micron, Apple, and Amazon are hiring domestic semiconductor practitioners and experts, while Ford prioritizes Korean speakers for its battery division. Chinese battery companies CATL and BYD have scouted talent through their Korean branches, and Europe's largest battery manufacturer Northvolt recently recruited many former employees from Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solution. Oh Hyun-hwan, head of the Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), pointed out at a discussion hosted by the Korean Academy of Science and Technology on the 12th that "We have entered a completely new phase where we must wage a talent acquisition war not only with domestic companies but also with foreign firms," and criticized that "South Korea is only making minor adjustments to existing systems and that each ministry's measures are the extent of the response."

The Reality in South Korea

With the world's fastest aging population and the lowest fertility rate, the situation is severe. South Korea's population was 51.84 million in 2020 but is projected to decline to 37.66 million by 2070. The elderly population aged 65 and over will more than double from 8.15 million in 2020 to 17.37 million in 2070, while the working-age population (15?64 years) will sharply decrease from 37.38 million to 17.47 million. Additionally, it is important to consider that major countries are experiencing declining higher education enrollment rates. The college-age population (18?21 years) is expected to drop from 2.41 million in 2021 to 1.87 million in 2030. Moreover, the proportion of students entering science and engineering universities and graduate schools is either stagnant or declining. The graduate school enrollment rate of science and engineering undergraduates was 9.3% in 2020, slightly down from 11.5% in 2015, and the undergraduate enrollment rate also declined somewhat from 99.0% in 2015 to 94.3% in 2021.

Aging in the research workforce is progressing rapidly. As of 2021, the proportion of researchers aged 50 and over was 13.5%, nearly a 50% increase from 9.6% in 2012. Conversely, the proportion of researchers in their 30s dropped sharply from 47.1% to 37.7% during the same period. Particularly in companies, the share of researchers aged 50 and above surged from 36.5% in 2013 to 59.2% in 2021.

Attracting overseas talent remains difficult. In 2022, South Korea ranked 49th out of 63 countries in attractiveness for recruiting high-level foreign talent according to the International Institute for Management Development (IMD), a significant drop from 37th in 2015. Last year, in the Global Talent Competitiveness Index (INSEAD), South Korea ranked 55th out of 133 countries. Oh Hyun-hwan expressed concern, stating, "In 13 years, when those born in 2017, the year the total fertility rate fell below one, enter university, the number of freshmen will be only one-third of the current figure," adding, "This means that the science and engineering workforce will decrease to an unimaginable level." He also noted, "As domestic companies rush to secure talent by raising salaries, more people are choosing employment over research, which could lead to a decline in potential research capabilities that may be difficult to recover from, and even cause excellent students to leave medical schools."

Urgent Need for Revolutionary Measures

The United States recently grants permanent residency (NIW) to highly educated technicians without requiring employer or labor permits. There is even a plan to introduce a 'Korean-only professional employment visa (E-4)' to attract Korean battery and semiconductor experts. Major technological powers such as Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and China are implementing similar measures. South Korea urgently needs groundbreaking and fundamental measures to secure science and technology talent in preparation for the population cliff era. Oh emphasized changes in higher education and research systems. He proposed, "Universities should be divided into education-focused and research-focused institutions, downsized based on population decline, and reorganized according to their roles. Education-focused universities need to reform department systems, promote interdisciplinary education, and shorten program durations to quickly supply the labor force, while research-focused universities require institution-centered R&D, improved graduate school treatment, creation of research-focused environments, and recruitment of international students." He also stressed the need for ▲ excluding government-funded research institutes from public institution designation to guarantee autonomy and strengthen compensation and support systems ▲ extending retirement age for outstanding researchers and enhancing research continuity ▲ strengthening current employees' capabilities ▲ building networks and improving visas to attract overseas talent and creating better living conditions.

Senior Researcher Um Mi-jung of the Science and Technology Policy Institute (STEPI) presented a somewhat different perspective. She argued that continuing "as usual" is not an option and that a change in mindset is necessary. She pointed out that although concerns about shortages of science and technology personnel have been raised for over 20 years, employment rates for science and engineering graduates have stagnated or declined. In fact, the employment rate for bachelor's degree holders dropped from 71.3% in 2013 to 64.9% in 2021, while for master's degree holders it remained almost unchanged from 82.7% to 84.6% during the same period. Doctorate holders' employment rates increased only slightly from 81.1% to 88.6%. Moreover, the proportion of those working in their fields was only 25.0% for natural sciences and 39.7% for engineering as of 2021.

Senior Researcher Um said, "We need to monitor specific phenomena and forecasts about when, how much, in which fields, and how shortages will occur to respond accordingly," adding, "It is necessary to build a system that recognizes science and technology professions as specialized occupations in the labor market and establish a comprehensive adjustment system to enable a 'transition' that can cope with the era of population decline."