There is a forecast that the nationwide apartment sales market will improve this month compared to last month. However, in regions with significant concerns about unsold units, such as Sejong, apartment sales are still expected to be slow.
According to the Korea Housing Industry Association (hereafter KHIA) on the 11th, the apartment sales outlook index for July was projected at 97.5. This is an increase of 14.3 points from last month’s 83.2. This index is a numerical indicator calculated by KHIA based on a survey of about 500 housing developers regarding the conditions of complexes that are about to be sold or currently on sale. The index ranges from 0.0 to 200.0. A value above 100.0 indicates a positive sales outlook, while below 100.0 indicates the opposite.
The metropolitan area was forecasted at 102.7, marking a positive shift in sales outlook. Seoul rose by 10.3 points from last month to 116.2. The provincial metropolitan cities and other provinces were expected to increase by 12.3 points and 16.8 points to 93.7 and 98.3, respectively.
By region, Gwangju is expected to rise by 35.8 points (84.2→120.0), Jeonnam by 31.8 points (76.5→108.3), Chungnam by 26.4 points (81.3→107.7), Ulsan by 23.5 points (68.8→92.3), Daejeon by 20.2 points (94.1→114.3), Gangwon by 18.9 points (70.0→88.9), Gyeonggi by 15.6 points (84.4→100.0), Gyeongnam by 15.4 points (92.9→108.3), Jeonbuk by 15.4 points (84.6→100.0), Chungbuk by 14.3 points (85.7→100.0), and Gyeongbuk by 11.6 points (81.3→92.9), with most regions nationwide expected to increase by more than 10 points.
On the other hand, Sejong showed the only decline nationwide, dropping 15.4 points from last month to 76.9. Busan (76.2→78.9) and Daegu (72.7→80.0) showed outlooks similar to the previous month. While the nationwide supply volume is expected to increase, regions with significant concerns about unsold units such as Sejong, Busan, and Daegu still appear to be cautious in promoting apartment sales projects.
KHIA analyzed, “Thanks to government revitalization measures, supply volume adjustments, discount sales, and other self-help measures by developers, the subscription competition rate has improved mainly in the metropolitan area, and positive perceptions of the sales market have also increased. However, polarization is intensifying depending on location and price competitiveness, so careful review of sales timing and price levels is expected to be necessary when promoting projects.”
The sales price outlook index for this month was projected to rise by 14.6 points to 117.7, marking the highest index this year. The main cause of the increase in the sales price outlook index is the rise in construction costs, but the improved subscription competition rate and higher sales possibility also contributed to the index increase.
The supply volume is also expected to rise by 10.6 points, recovering the outlook index above 90 for the first time in 13 months since June last year. This increase in supply volume outlook appears to be due to developers who had postponed sales due to economic downturn, financing difficulties, and unsold risks starting to resume sales.
The unsold unit outlook decreased slightly by 0.1 points from last month to 98.4. However, KHIA stated, “Although the unsold volume has slightly decreased due to reduced supply, the already accumulated unsold units combined with the supply volume in the second half of the year may cause an increase in unsold units in the future, so continuous monitoring is necessary.”
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