[Reading Science] Record-Breaking Solar Sunspot Occurrence... Disaster Predicted Within Several Years

The sun has shown its most active behavior in over 20 years in the past month. Analysts warn that after reaching a peak within a few years, powerful solar storms could hit Earth, causing disasters such as satellite losses.

Solar observation image during the sunspot eruption on the 28th captured by the SDO satellite (NASA's dedicated solar observation satellite).

On the 3rd (local time), the space weather specialist media 'Space Weather' reported that sunspots occurred 163.4 times during June alone. This is the highest record in over 20 years since observations began in the late 1990s. It far exceeds the recent forecast by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which predicted a maximum monthly count of 125.

The problem lies in the aftermath. In the coming months to years, powerful solar storms may occur, causing significant damage. Solar physicist Case Strong told the space specialist media Space.com on the 2nd, "This is the highest monthly number of sunspots since September 2002," adding, "There were 163.4 occurrences in June alone, the highest in over 20 years."

The surface temperature of the sun is about 5800K (Kelvin, approximately 6000 degrees Celsius). Sunspots are relatively cooler areas (4000?5000K) that appear dark. They occur due to convection disruption caused by magnetic fields. They are accompanied by solar flare explosions and massive coronal mass ejections. During this process, solar storms composed of magnetic fields and solar particles occur, affecting Earth. In fact, on the 2nd, a giant sunspot appeared, triggering a powerful solar flare that temporarily disrupted radio communication networks across the U.S. West and the entire Pacific region.

Especially as the situation worsens, there is a possibility of experiencing the worst-case scenario. Solar activity is expected to become more active over the next 1?2 years, peaking around 2024?2025. As a result, powerful solar storms could strike Earth around 2025?2026. NASA researcher Robert Lieman explained, "The strongest (solar storm) effects will impact Earth in 2025?2026, after the peak," adding, "This is because the sun's poles change every 11 years."

The impact of solar wind on Earth is more serious than expected. Particles emitted from the sun collide with Earth's atmosphere, creating auroras. However, they can also cause problems such as temporarily disrupting satellite networks in Earth's orbit and ground-based radio communication networks. After a powerful solar storm struck in 2003, satellite operators worldwide experienced chaos, losing hundreds of satellites. This was because the air density in the uppermost layer of Earth's atmosphere increased, causing satellites to deviate from their positions. Although this layer normally has a very thin atmosphere, it expands due to interaction with solar wind. Satellites encounter much greater drag and resistance than usual, which can cause them to leave their original orbits.

Recently, concerns have grown due to the rapid increase in space debris and the number of satellites. If strong solar winds make it impossible to track the positions of satellites and space debris, avoidance maneuvers to prevent collisions will also become impossible. Earth's orbit could fall into a state of 'chaos.' Last year, SpaceX suffered a disaster when it lost all 40 Starlink satellites launched in February due to solar wind. The satellites failed to reach orbit and crashed because of stronger-than-expected atmospheric drag. The European Space Agency (ESA) also lost all three satellites launched last year for Earth's magnetic field observation for similar reasons.

Additionally, strong solar radiation can damage satellite electronic circuits. It can also interfere with signals from satellite navigation systems (GPS). Power grids and communication networks on the ground sometimes experience outages. The strongest solar storm in history occurred in 1859. At that time, telegraph operators reported sparks flying from machines, causing fires, and telegraph services across Europe and North America were interrupted for several days, resulting in significant damage.