There is a forecast that the scale of jeonse deposits maturing by next year will approach 300 trillion won, while reverse jeonse cases are rapidly increasing in both the metropolitan area and provinces. Properties that signed jeonse contracts at peak prices two years ago are approaching contract completion in the second half of this year, making aftershocks from reverse jeonse inevitable until the first half of next year.
According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's real transaction price disclosure system on the 20th, a 59㎡ exclusive area in Samsung Hanshin, Seohyeon-dong, Bundang-gu, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, signed a jeonse contract at the highest price of 650 million won in December 2021, but in March this year, a contract was made for the same area at 440 million won (5th floor). The price gap for new contracts widened by more than 200 million won. Currently, the jeonse asking price for the same area is formed between 485 million won and 550 million won.
A 59㎡ exclusive area in The Sharp Central City, Songdo, Incheon, signed a highest-price jeonse contract at 639 million won in December 2021, but this month on the 6th, a tenant was secured at 320 million won (32nd floor). This means the jeonse price is more than 300 million won lower than the peak price. Currently, jeonse listings in this complex are priced between 290 million won and 360 million won.
The highest jeonse price for an 84㎡ exclusive area in Moonchon 1 Complex Woosung, Juyop-dong, Ilsanseo-gu, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do was 570 million won in January last year. However, on the 4th of this month, a jeonse contract was signed at 340 million won (4th floor), showing a difference of more than 200 million won compared to the peak price. In May, a jeonse contract was signed at 300 million won (6th floor). For the same area, in May this year, sales contracts were made at 500 million won (7th floor) and 490 million won (9th floor), resulting in a phenomenon where last year's jeonse price surpassed this year's sales price.
The provinces, including metropolitan cities, are no exception. An 83㎡ exclusive area in I-Park, Haeundae-gu, Busan, had a highest jeonse price of 650 million won in December 2021. This complex saw a jeonse contract at 400 million won (45th floor) in April this year, less than two years later. Currently, the same area’s jeonse listings on Naver are priced between 390 million won and 409 million won.
A 84㎡ exclusive area in Gyeongnam Town, Beomeo-dong, Suseong-gu, Daegu, which had a jeonse contract at 390 million won in October 2021, was contracted at 200 million won in June this year. In May, contracts were signed at 190 million won (10th floor) and 180 million won (11th floor). With the jeonse price dropping by nearly 200 million won, the gap with the sales price widened further. The same area was brokered at 980 million won (12th floor) in May. Gyeongnam Town received approval for the reconstruction association establishment in March 2018, and POSCO Construction was selected as the contractor.
A 84㎡ exclusive area in Clover, Dunsan-dong, Seo-gu, Daejeon, once had a highest jeonse contract at 630 million won (October 2021), but in April this year, a contract was signed at 500 million won (6th floor), more than 100 million won lower than the peak price. The jeonse prices in this complex have stabilized in the 500 million won range, showing 530 million won (5th floor) in January, 525 million won (7th floor) in February, and 520 million won (12th floor) in March this year.
The reverse jeonse shock is expected to continue in the second half of the year. Concerns are rising that nationwide reverse jeonse difficulties will intensify as jeonse contracts worth 300 trillion won expire over the next year. According to a survey by the real estate platform ‘Zigbang’ on the total jeonse transaction amount from the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2022, the total jeonse transaction amount for nationwide housing contracts expiring in the second half of 2021 is 14.98 trillion won. The total jeonse transaction amount for contracts expiring in the first half of last year is 15.39 trillion won. The total scale of jeonse deposits expiring nationwide over the next year exceeds 300 trillion won. This is the highest transaction amount recorded since real transaction prices were disclosed in 2011. Even if this is not the amount to be returned all at once, if jeonse contracts of this scale expire over the next year, the number of landlords unable to return deposits is expected to increase further.
Park Won-gap, Senior Real Estate Specialist at KB Kookmin Bank, said, "High-point jeonse contracts are concentrated in apartments in the second half of this year," adding, "Especially, the peak of reverse jeonse difficulties is expected in the fourth quarter of this year, and aftershocks related to this are inevitable until the first half of next year."
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