"Significant Economic Impact of Banks, Advanced Technology, and Life Sciences"
"70% of Work Hours Automated"... NYT "Rosy Outlook"
The global craze for generative artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to add more than 5610 trillion won in annual value to the world economy, according to a "rosier prediction" released by the global consulting firm McKinsey Global Institute.
On the 14th (local time), McKinsey forecasted in a report titled "The Economic Potential of Generative AI" that generative AI is expected to add between $2.6 trillion and $4.4 trillion (approximately 3318 trillion to 5615 trillion won) in annual value to the global economy. Considering that the 2021 gross domestic product (GDP) of the G5 countries, including the UK, was $3.1 trillion, this suggests an enormous economic impact generated by generative AI.
In particular, it is expected that significant economic effects from generative AI will occur in the banking, advanced technology, and life sciences sectors. When generative AI is actively introduced into industries, banks are projected to gain an additional economic value of $200 billion to $340 billion annually, while retail and consumer goods could see an added value of $400 billion to $660 billion per year.
For example, deploying AI chatbots in bank customer centers or having bank employees use them to reduce response times at branches.
McKinsey also projected that generative AI could automate 60-70% of the tasks currently performed by office workers. Previously, McKinsey estimated that about 50% of tasks could be automated, but this figure has now been raised. McKinsey stated, "Generative AI will have a greater impact on knowledge work-related jobs that require high salaries and advanced education than on other tasks."
This outlook is similar to those of other institutions. In March, the US investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted that generative AI could affect 300 million full-time jobs worldwide, with white-collar jobs being the most impacted. Recent reports have also highlighted the risk of generative AI replacing tasks such as copywriting, document translation and drafting, and legal assistance.
McKinsey expects that about half of the tasks will be automated between 2030 and 2060. This timeframe was previously projected as 2035 to 2075, but the boom in generative AI since the end of last year has accelerated the expected timeline.
Although concerns about generative AI threatening jobs have recently increased, McKinsey emphasized in this report that it will enhance productivity and economic effects. It forecasted that if generative AI is introduced in workplaces, labor productivity could increase by 0.1 to 0.6% annually by 2040. Combining generative AI with other technologies could lead to an annual productivity increase of 0.2 to 3.3 percentage points through automation.
However, McKinsey added that workers will need to quickly acquire new skills and some will have to change jobs to achieve this.
The New York Times (NYT) described the McKinsey report as "one of the few reports quantifying the long-term economic impact of generative AI," calling it "one of the 'rosier predictions' regarding the economic effects of rapidly evolving technology."
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