[Politics That Day] The Unexpected Turn in Seoul Gwanak-gu, the Place of Jo Guk's Candidacy Debate

Cho Kuk Likely to Run in Gwanak-gu if Entering General Election
Traditionally Favorable Election Results for the Democratic Party
2015 April 29 By-election Gave Victory to Saenuri Party

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day…’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to scenes, events, or figures that deserve attention.

Whether former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk will run in the 22nd general election is one of the interests in Yeouido's political circles. The main questions are whether he will actually choose to run and, if so, in what form. This is not the first time that Cho Kuk's potential candidacy has attracted attention.

Regardless of his own will, Cho Kuk was previously listed as a candidate for recruitment for the Seoul mayor and Busan mayor positions. Mainly, the current Democratic Party of Korea has considered him as a recruitment target and encouraged his political participation.

Although Cho Kuk served as Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs and Minister of Justice under the Moon Jae-in administration, his activities as a politician are a completely different matter. Legal burdens surrounding him and his family remain, and the political repercussions of his candidacy itself could be a variable.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Recently, Cho Kuk met with former President Moon Jae-in, which reignited speculation about his candidacy in the general election. Cho Kuk posted the following on Facebook:

"In a time of regression and backwardness where everything about the Moon Jae-in government is denied and disparaged, I am contemplating what must be done. I will walk the 'roadless road' without a map or compass."

Although Cho Kuk has not directly participated in politics so far, he is a figure who has familiarized himself with political mechanisms. It is clear that leaving a message about walking a 'roadless road' after meeting a former president will be interpreted in various ways inside and outside the political circles.

This is why the Democratic Party is also paying attention to the possibility of Cho Kuk running in the general election.

The theory of Cho Kuk's candidacy gained attention through lawyer Shin Pyeong, who was known as a mentor to President Yoon Suk-yeol. Lawyer Shin specifically pointed to Seoul's Gwanak District as a likely electoral district.

If Cho Kuk actually runs in the general election, it is more likely to be a constituency seat rather than proportional representation. If it is a constituency, his hometown Busan or Gwanak District, where his alma mater Seoul National University is located, are strong candidates. Gwanak District is considered a prime area for the Democratic Party.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In the 2022 Seoul mayoral election, where the Democratic Party struggled, Gwanak District was the second-highest vote-getting district for candidate Song Young-gil among 25 districts. This background is why political circles, including lawyer Shin Pyeong, are paying attention to the theory of Cho Kuk running in Gwanak.

In fact, Gwanak District is favorable to the Democratic Party. In past elections, Democratic Party candidates have often outperformed their competitors. However, whether Cho Kuk can be confident of winning if he actually runs in Seoul's Gwanak District remains to be seen.

The election dynamics in Gwanak District could unfold in completely different ways. There is also the possibility that the People Power Party might launch a targeted nomination. It is not impossible that an independent candidate with Democratic Party leanings could run, splitting the vote.

From the Democratic Party's perspective, there is practically no place where ‘running in Seoul = winning’ can be guaranteed. Unlike the People Power Party, whose chances of winning are sharply rising in Gangnam or Seocho, areas favorable to the Democratic Party such as Gwanak, Gangbuk, and Dobong have all seen conservative party candidates win before.

Oh Shin-hwan, People Power Party candidate for Seoul mayoral primary. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

A representative example is the April 29, 2015 by-election held during Moon Jae-in's leadership of the New Politics Alliance for Democracy. At that time, the party experienced a shock of total defeat, with losses in Gwangju and Gwanak being particularly painful.

The Saenuri Party caught a big fish in Gwanak. Saenuri candidate Oh Shin-hwan won with 43.89% of the vote. New Politics Alliance for Democracy candidate Jung Tae-ho received only 34.2%. It was a one-sided victory that was not close.

The New Politics Alliance for Democracy was struck hard in Gwanak, a place they had trusted.

The favorable election dynamics that led to Saenuri's victory in Gwanak included independent candidate Chung Dong-young, a former chairman of the Uri Party, who ran in the by-election and disrupted the election dynamics. Oh Shin-hwan secured the votes he could, but Jung Tae-ho did not.

Chung Dong-young's independent candidacy garnered 20.15% of the vote, which was the main cause. Democratic-leaning voters split their votes between Jung Tae-ho and Chung Dong-young. The April 29 by-election was a nightmare for the Democratic Party, an experience of being stabbed in the foot by a trusted axe.

Gwanak District supported the Democratic Party consecutively in the 20th general election in 2016 and the 21st general election in 2020. This trend is likely to continue in the 22nd general election in 2024. However, depending on the election dynamics, the People Power Party could recreate the glory of 2015.

Gwanak District, considered the epicenter of the Cho Kuk candidacy theory, is expected to be one of the most watched constituencies in the 22nd general election until the candidates' outlines are finalized.