[M Changing the World]③ Lee Jun-seok: "Lack of Agenda to Surpass Industrialization and Democratization"

M Generation, the First Generation to Normalize Resistance to Social Downgrading
Robots and AI Replacing Labor... A Growing Concern for Generations
Youth in Jeonju Worry Less Than Youth in Gwangju and Daegu, Similar to Middle-aged Concerns

"Regardless of conservative or progressive, our society has long failed to present an agenda for the 30 years beyond industrialization and democratization. The two major parties are experiencing an identity crisis. The fact that President Yoon Seok-yeol, unrelated to industrialization, was nominated by the People Power Party, which is rooted in the glory of industrialization, and that Lee Jae-myung, unrelated to democratization, was nominated by the Democratic Party of Korea, which is rooted in the glory of democratization, symbolically illustrates this point."

Lee Jun-seok, former leader of the People Power Party (38), said in an interview with Asia Economy near Hongdae Station in Mapo-gu, Seoul, on the 2nd, "The fact that President Yoon and Lee became the presidential candidates of the two major parties indicates that the parties ultimately failed in the process of finding a new agenda beyond industrialization and democratization."

Former Lee Jun-seok, People Power Party leader. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Born in 1985, Lee is considered a representative of the millennial generation (M generation, born 1980?1996) in politics. He entered politics at the end of 2011 as an emergency committee member of the Saenuri Party at the age of 26, and just ten years later, in 2021, at the age of 36, he defeated former four-term floor leader Na Kyung-won and was elected leader of the main opposition party, signaling a generational shift occurring every 30 years.

Holding the title of the youngest floor leader of the main opposition party in constitutional history, some recall the '40s generation theory' of former Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam. The two Kims, born in the 1920s, rose to prominence as the mainstream of the opposition after struggles by senior opposition members and led Korean politics for about 30 years until the 1990s.

During the last presidential election, Lee also proposed the so-called 'generation encirclement theory,' aiming to overcome the largest domestic population group and opposition supporters born in the 1960s and 1970s by uniting the elderly and youth, contributing to President Yoon's victory. After achieving two consecutive nationwide election defeats through the subsequent local elections, Lee stepped down from party leadership following a hegemony struggle with President Yoon and the so-called 'Yoon core group' of party members born in the 1960s, and is currently touring the Honam region seeking a comeback.

"The first generation without expectations of being better than their parents"

Former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Lee defines the M generation as "a generation for whom resistance to downward social mobility has become a daily routine." While previous generations fought to climb the social ladder faster than others, the M generation and subsequent generations are desperately fighting to prevent falling down the ladder.

He said, "(The M generation) is the first generation without the expectation that tomorrow's self will be better than today's self. Even the father’s generation (the 86 generation) mostly enjoyed the fruits of growth," adding, "Some were faster, some slower, but most expanded their homes from 10 pyeong to 20 pyeong to 30 pyeong and upgraded their cars from Avante (compact), Sonata (mid-size), to Grandeur (full-size)."

He continued, "In contrast, in our generation, some drive imported cars from their twenties, while others cannot even afford a car in their forties. If we view our society as a staircase, the M generation is the first to recognize not where they will climb on the stairs but that they can fall down, and they resist this."

Lee attributes the rapid loss of hegemony by the mainstream 86 generation in Korean society mainly to 'collective identity.' Although democratization was not the exclusive domain of any individual or generation, the struggles of some and the resulting moral superiority have been converted into the memories and achievements of one generation, causing contradictions that clash with reality.

He said, "Our society tends to apply stereotypes rather than individual characteristics when evaluating generations. While some risked their lives in the democratization movement, others were less significant or not morally upright. When these individuals try to leverage this by turning conflicts into group-versus-group confrontations, errors occur."

Moreover, the method of othering and rejecting groups different from oneself has backfired. For example, the opposition, which once criticized conservative parties as 'reactionary hardliners,' is now treated as the 'establishment party.' Lee said, "The Democratic Party, which once criticized the Saenuri Party as the 'Sexual Harassment Party,' is now attacked as the 'Together Only Party.' As a result, those who lump others together are lumped together themselves. Groups and individuals must be distinguished."

In this regard, he believes conservative parties are no different. Lee pointed out, "Since the early 1990s, the myth that conservatives are better than progressives in economy, security, and education has been broken. People said, 'If you vote for DJ (Kim Dae-jung), it will lead to communist unification,' but although views on unification differ, communist unification did not happen. They said, 'If the Korean Teachers and Education Workers Union (KTU) gains power, education will collapse,' but progressive education superintendents continue to be elected. Fear marketing has also reached its limit."

Lee believes the clue to an agenda beyond industrialization and democratization lies in 'generations.' A symbolic example is the voting rate in the Honam region during the 20th presidential election. Traditionally, the conservative party's vote share in Honam was in the order of Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, and Gwangju, attributed to the influence of the May 18 Gwangju Democratization Movement.

However, in this election, the order changed to Jeonbuk, Gwangju, and Jeonnam. The biggest difference between Gwangju and Jeonnam is the population structure. According to Statistics Korea, as of May, the elderly population ratio in Gwangju was 15.9%, nearly 10 percentage points lower than Jeonnam's 25.5%. Lee explained, "This shows that the agenda of the May 18 Gwangju Democratization Movement is weakening in Gwangju, where the population is relatively younger."

Lee said, "From a generational perspective, the concerns of young people in Gwangju, Daegu, Jeonju, and Pohang are similar. The gap between people in their twenties and fifties in Jeonju is likely even larger. The Yeongnam region already has Democratic Party support rates around 30-40%, moving away from the traditional good-versus-evil framework, and Honam is also gradually moving away from it, as seen in previous cases. In that sense, I believe the political sphere is likely to unite around a generational agenda in the future."

Political sphere fails to find agenda... Meanwhile, robot and AI technology threaten humans

Former Lee Jun-seok, People Power Party leader. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

He points out that the political sphere has yet to present a future agenda that unites industrialization and democratization. He said, "In the late 1960s (during the Park Chung-hee administration), heavy and chemical industries were identified and fostered as future growth engines, and 30 years later, during the Kim Dae-jung administration, ICT infrastructure and cultural industries were intensively developed, leading to the present. But that was already 20 years ago, and even the Yoon Seok-yeol administration shows no sign of concern about what Korea will sell in the future."

He also criticized the Yoon administration's semiconductor industry promotion as being conventional. Lee said, "Now is the time to consider whether Samsung is a company that the government can nurture with support. Would Samsung have difficulty raising funds? When asked whether a company like Nvidia in the U.S. can emerge in Korea, can the Yongin semiconductor cluster be the answer?"

Lee also voiced criticism of the Yoon administration's labor market structural reforms. While trying to gain legitimacy for labor reform by engaging with large company and office worker unions called 'MZ unions,' he argues they lack representativeness. He said, "Although called MZ unions, they may represent only a very small part of our society, such as large companies and organized labor. In fact, the 'radical union' frame largely reflects a conflict between 1% political elites and 1% labor elites."

He added, "For those working in vulnerable sectors like small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for 80% of our jobs, issues like multiple unions are a story from another planet. With such a limited agenda from the Yoon administration, it is difficult to solve the problems of this generation."

He warned that robots and artificial intelligence (AI) are surpassing human hardware and software productivity, potentially causing a rapid change in traditional views on labor. Lee said, "In the future, beyond differences between large and small companies or regular and irregular workers, the key will be whether people can maintain a minimum standard of living through labor or transfer income. In other words, people whose productivity is lower than robots and AI may be eliminated. While the Luddites' movement during the Industrial Revolution was limited to specific occupations, this issue may expand to a generational problem."

Regarding whether such a forecast is too distant, he said, "During the COVID-19 pandemic, platform labor surged, but recently, an employment crisis has occurred. The usage rate of delivery applications has dropped by about 20%, causing a significant employment crisis in the delivery sector, which proves this."

He also cited the Shinbundang Line, which operates unmanned but has the highest punctuality and lowest accident rates, saying, "Lines 1 to 4 have two-person crews, and lines 5 to 8 have one-person crews. This workforce is the first to be replaced. Currently, resistance to this trend is due to safety concerns, but naturally, the workforce is decreasing due to technological advancement. This is the problem facing the political sphere."

"We must question whether low birthrate is a disaster... Urgent need for education reform"

Former Lee Jun-seok, former leader of the People Power Party. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Lee also expressed a different view on the low birthrate and aging population issue. He argued that we must consider the problems that expanding birthrates may bring amid declining human productivity due to robots and AI. He said, "If the productivity of the additional population born through low birthrate policies does not reach that of robots and AI, they may become a burden on welfare policies."

Regarding the recent intensifying gender conflicts, he said we must face reality rather than conventional wisdom. Considering military service periods, differences in social entry and marriage ages between men and women inevitably intensify competition over limited opportunities.

Lee pointed out, "Typically, the average age of first marriage for men is about 2.9 years older. The male population born in 2000 is about 330,000, while the female population born in 2003 is about 230,000, resulting in a sex ratio imbalance of about 3 to 2. For 2000-born males, roughly one-third have no marriage partner, and considering trends toward remaining single, the actual figure may be about half."

He continued, "The same applies to social entry. Considering military service, there is a 2-3 year difference in social entry timing, and the 3 to 2 sex ratio applies. If feminists who advocate gender parity apply a 1 to 1 ratio in hiring, conflicts are bound to arise. Already, men born in the 1990s see themselves as not weak but exposed to more severe competition than women."

As a solution to overlapping issues such as the robot and AI backlash and gender conflicts, Lee emphasized the need for a complete overhaul of the public education system. He said, "The current 12-year public education system?6 years of elementary, 3 years of middle, and 3 years of high school?was designed during the Industrial Revolution to ensure workers could produce minimum productivity in factories. The curriculum, revised every 2-3 years in research labs, cannot keep up with actual industrial sites."

He also mentioned the downsizing of public education, saying, "For example, in the past, to enter the broadcasting industry, one had to pass through terrestrial broadcasters, which required doing well on the College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT) and graduating from prestigious universities. The priorities were reversed. In my constituency, Sanggye-dong, a famous figure alongside me is creator Jjuyang, who graduated from Nowon-gu Future Industry Science High School. Seeing what he does makes me question whether the 12-year public education system is necessary. Perhaps it would be better to hand children webcams rather than telling them to do well on the CSAT."

Lee explained that such education system reform could also help alleviate the low birthrate problem. He said, "Considering the average life cycle, a woman gets a job at 26-27 and faces barriers like fertility, marriage, and childbirth when becoming a manager, leading some to give up marriage and childbirth to maintain their careers. We need to advance the age of social entry."

He added, "Although the Yoon administration's initial immature policies were shelved, if reforms are made to start public education one year earlier and shorten it by one year, advancing social entry by two years, the scope of change would be significant. Allowing men and women to have two more years of self-exploration in their twenties would be a considerable change and a solution to marriage and childbirth issues."

He also interpreted that low birthrate policies such as 'cash support' could deepen wealth disparities. Lee said, "If 100 million won is given to those who give birth, it would be like giving an additional 100 million won to those already willing to have children. The '3-po generation' who have given up on childbirth would not receive support, and those who will have children anyway receiving 100 million won could worsen wealth inequality, contrary to policy goals."