[News in War History] Ukraine's Mega Dam Explosion, Aiming for a Modern 'Salsu Daechup'

Expansion of Flooded Areas Slows Ukraine Offensive
Battle of Salsu, Questioning if It Was a Water Operation
Concerns Over Increased Civilian Casualties and Worsening Food Shortage

The collapse of the massive Kakhovka Dam, a large-scale hydroelectric dam located in the Kherson region of Ukraine, has brought a new turning point to the Ukraine war. As Ukraine launched a large-scale counteroffensive, most of the Kherson region, where the main counteroffensive was expected to continue, was submerged due to the dam collapse, causing significant damage to both Ukrainian and Russian forces.

The international community, including Ukraine and Western countries, is condemning Russia for deliberately blowing up the dam to delay Ukraine's counteroffensive, while Russia is blaming Ukrainian operatives for the act, resulting in mutual accusations. Some experts even speculate that the Russian military had been accumulating a significant amount of water in the dam from the start, aiming for a water attack (su-gong) operation, which adds weight to the argument that Russia bears responsibility for war crimes.

On the 6th (local time), satellite company Maxar Technologies released satellite images showing a section of the Nova Kakhovka Dam in Kherson Oblast, Ukraine, that has been destroyed. [Image source=Reuters·Yonhap News]

However, considering the considerable damage suffered by both sides due to the flooding, there is speculation that the incident may have been caused by Russian military negligence combined with artillery exchanges between the two sides. Since traditional water attack operations are extremely difficult to execute without causing damage to one's own forces, there is also a counterargument that the currently beleaguered Russian forces would have found it difficult to contemplate such a large-scale water operation.

In this segment, we will explore the various theories surrounding the collapse of the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine, as well as examine water attack operations, which have historically been regarded as tactics whose effectiveness has often been exaggerated.

◆News: Flood Damage Surges, Ukraine Counteroffensive Stalls... Russian Forces Also Suffer Losses

On the 7th (local time), a large amount of water flowed in due to the explosion of the Kahowka Dam, flooding the Kherson region. Kherson=AP·Yonhap News

Let's start with the news. On the 6th (local time), a section of the Kakhovka Dam, located downstream of the Dnipro River in Ukraine's Kherson region, was blown up for unknown reasons. As a result, a massive amount of water poured out, submerging not only the downtown area of Kherson city, the capital of Kherson region, but also the surrounding areas. At one point, the water level rose by tens of meters, flooding the major grain export port of Kherson.

Built in 1956, the Nova Kakhovka Dam is part of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant facilities and is connected to a reservoir with a volume of about 18 cubic kilometers. The volume is said to be comparable to that of the Great Salt Lake in the United States. This water was supplied as a major water source to the nearby Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula.

Western intelligence agencies and leaders view the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam as an act by Russia. According to German local media ZDF, on the 6th, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in a speech at the WDR Europa Forum held in Berlin, criticized Russia, saying, "The destruction of the dam in Ukraine is consistent with the numerous war crimes committed by Russian soldiers in Ukraine," and "It is a new level of atrocity, but it aligns with how Putin is conducting this war."

He emphasized, "Considering all circumstances, this attack should naturally be seen as an assault by Russia aimed at preventing Ukraine's offensive to reclaim its territory," and added, "There have been concerns for some time that this dam could be attacked." This statement draws a clear line, attributing the act to Russia amid mutual claims by Ukraine and Russia blaming each other for the dam's destruction.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing a Western official, reported that "the balance of evidence points to Russian responsibility," and that "Russia deliberately flooded villages along the Dnipro River to buy time to halt Ukraine's offensive and hinder the movement of Ukrainian forces." There is speculation that the Russian military intentionally conducted a water operation to facilitate the defense of Kherson, where Ukraine is reportedly focusing its offensive as a link to Crimea and the Donbas region.

However, the United States is still taking a cautious stance. On the 6th, John Kirby, White House National Security Council (NSC) Coordinator for Strategic Communications, stated at a briefing, "The U.S. is doing its best to assess who is responsible for the dam explosion," and "We are cooperating with Ukraine to gather more information, but it is difficult to make definitive statements at this time." He added, "At the time of the explosion, the dam was illegally occupied and controlled by Russian forces," and "We have not determined whether the explosion was intentional."

This cautious approach is analyzed to be due to the significant damage suffered by Russian forces as well. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the collapse of the Kakhovka Dam submerged the Kherson region and nearby areas, washing away a significant portion of the Russian defensive positions deployed east of the Dnipro River. From the Russian military's perspective, the situation did not simply become easier to defend. After the dam's destruction, many Russian troops stationed in the flooded areas reportedly suffered casualties, raising doubts about whether the Russian military truly intended to conduct a water operation by destroying the dam.

◆History 1: Ancient Water Attack Operations, Extremely Difficult Tactics... Limitations in Civil Engineering and Explosive Technology

A painting depicting the siege of Takamatsu Castle in Japan in 1582. It illustrates the castle being flooded as a result of Toyotomi Hideyoshi's water attack strategy.
[Image source=Tokyo Metropolitan Central Library]

Historically, water attack operations have been very difficult and complicated tactics, so they were not widely used. While movies and media often depict scenes where massive amounts of water suddenly flood and sweep away hundreds of thousands of troops, the prevailing view is that such operations were impossible in both ancient and modern times.

In Korean history, the water attack operation that comes to mind is the Battle of Salsu in 612, fought between Goguryeo and the Sui Dynasty. It is commonly believed that the Goguryeo army conducted a water attack on the Cheongcheon River, defeating the Sui army of about 300,000 troops. However, historical records do not mention any such water attack.

Records of the battle appear in Chinese historical texts such as the Sui Shu (Book of Sui), which chronicles the Sui Dynasty, and the Zizhi Tongjian, a Chinese historical chronicle compiled during the Song Dynasty. In Korea, the Samguk Sagi (History of the Three Kingdoms) also records the event. All these sources mention that the Goguryeo army attacked the Sui forces at Salsu and achieved a great victory, but none mention a water attack operation.

The story of a water attack likely originates from folk traditions. During the Japanese colonial period, historian Shin Chae-ho included this folk tale in his work Joseon Sanggosa (Ancient History of Korea). The tale is related to the origin of Chilbulsa Temple near the Cheongcheon River. It tells that when the Sui army tried to cross the Cheongcheon River, seven monks appeared, rolled up their robes, and crossed the river. The Sui army, thinking the water was shallow, followed and drowned. To commemorate this, the Chilbulsa Temple was built.

Whether an actual water attack occurred remains uncertain, but since water attack operations require civil engineering skills to quickly build dams and explosives to instantly blow up embankments, it is presumed that such dramatic water attacks were difficult to execute in ancient times without these technologies.

Ancient water attack operations typically involved besieging a fortress by blocking and then breaking the embankments of rivers connected to the fortress during heavy monsoon rains, flooding most of the area inside the fortress. The Romance of the Three Kingdoms records that in 198 AD, Cao Cao used such a strategy during the siege of Xiapi (下?) Fortress against L? Bu in Xuzhou. Toyotomi Hideyoshi also employed this tactic when attacking Takamatsu Castle in 1582.

These water attack operations were mainly used not to drown the enemy all at once but to flood the interior of the fortress during summer, spoiling food supplies and spreading infectious diseases to break the defenders' resistance.

◆History 2: Chiang Kai-shek’s Water Attack Operation during the Sino-Japanese War... 12 Million Displaced

In June 1938, the Chinese Nationalist Army blew up the Yellow River dikes and retreated to stop the advance of the Japanese army. [Image source: History of the Republic of China (中華民國史話)]

There are cases where indiscriminate water attack operations caused tremendous damage to friendly forces. One famous example is Chiang Kai-shek’s water attack operation during the Sino-Japanese War in 1938, when he blew up the Yellow River embankments.

In May 1938, the Japanese army was advancing westward from Shandong toward central China, and the Nationalist forces were on the verge of losing Zhengzhou, a key transportation hub in central China. If Zhengzhou fell, the entire Chinese interior would be at risk of collapse. To halt the Japanese offensive, the Nationalists hastily destroyed the Yellow River embankments.

The flooding operation was carried out without properly informing the residents for secrecy, resulting in a massive number of displaced persons and deaths. Approximately 12.5 million people were displaced, and 890,000 died due to the sudden floods. The Nationalists blamed the Japanese for bombing and destroying the embankments, but the international community harshly criticized the act. Even Nazi Germany condemned the destruction of the Yellow River embankments as inhumane.

The total flooded area reached about 50,000 square kilometers, roughly half the size of South Korea. The major grain-producing areas around the Yellow River and Huai River were submerged, plunging tens of millions in China into famine. Secondary damages from epidemics and lack of drinking water persisted for a long time. The destruction of the Yellow River embankments is recorded as a complete failure of a water attack operation. The embankments were only restored in 1946, after the end of World War II, bringing an end to the damage.

◆Implication: Concerns Over Worsening Civilian Harm Due to Epidemics and Food Shortages

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

The international community views the collapse of the Kakhovka Dam very seriously because of the massive damage caused by the destruction of the Yellow River embankments in 1938. The Kakhovka Dam collapse occurred in a major grain-producing area, and the flooding has swept away mines planted by both Ukrainian and Russian forces, causing various damages that make recovery difficult.

Russia’s refusal to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative following this incident has further heightened international concerns. If Russia formally withdraws from the agreement, famine in the Middle East and Africa, regions highly dependent on grain from this area, is expected to worsen significantly.

There is also concern about another disaster following epidemics and food and water shortages: the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which uses the dam’s water for cooling. If the water supply from the dam continues to decrease, prolonged cooling water shortages could lead to a nuclear radiation leak accident. We sincerely hope that civilian casualties do not increase any further.