[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Countdown to North Korea Reconnaissance Satellite Relaunch

New Developments in Buk Dongchang-ri Area
Opposition to IMO Resolution Adoption
Possibility of Launch Without Prior Notice

North Korea appears to have entered the countdown for the re-launch of a space launch vehicle it claims to be a reconnaissance satellite. In response to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopting a resolution condemning North Korea's missile launch for the first time in history, North Korea has indicated that it may not provide prior notification to the IMO even if it launches satellites in the future, raising speculation that it may carry out a surprise launch.

On the 5th, the Voice of America (VOA) reported that the U.S. private satellite imagery service company Planet Labs captured movements of equipment being relocated around the West Sea Satellite Launch Site in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, North Korea, in photos taken on the 3rd.

The new activity was observed at the existing launch site. The first launch on the 31st of last month took place at a newly constructed launch site about 3 km away on the coast, which is different from this location. At the existing launch site, a mobile building was seen moving toward the center of the launch pad. It is expected that the launch vehicle will soon be moved here, erected vertically, and mounted on the launch pad.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Earlier, North Korea stated that it would not provide prior notification to the IMO when re-launching the launch vehicle. The IMO adopted a resolution condemning North Korea's missile launch for the first time at its London headquarters in the UK immediately after North Korea's military reconnaissance satellite launch provocation. In response, North Korea said through the Korean Central News Agency the day before, "Since the International Maritime Organization responded by adopting an anti-Republic resolution against our satellite launch prior notification, we will regard this as the organization's official statement that our prior notification is no longer necessary."

Previously, on the 31st of last month, North Korea announced the launch of a space launch vehicle claiming it was a military reconnaissance satellite and notified the IMO of the launch period from May 31 to June 10. However, the space launch vehicle launched at that time failed to fly properly and crashed into the West Sea.

Military authorities maintain that tracking is possible even if North Korea does not notify the launch vehicle's trajectory. They also believe that if the launch fails as it did during the first launch, the debris can be recovered.

The military plans to recover the debris of the launch vehicle that fell into the West Sea on the 31st of last month by this week. Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop stated at the National Assembly's Defense Committee on the 1st that recovery could be possible as early as the 3rd. However, it is reported that the operation is facing difficulties due to currents reaching 2 knots (3.7 km/h), strong enough to sway divers' bodies.

Meanwhile, the military has agreed to form a joint investigation team with U.S. forces to analyze the launch vehicle once it is recovered. North Korea's space launch vehicle, Cheollima-1, is estimated to have three stages with a total length of about 29 to 30 meters, while the current debris measures about 15 meters in length and 2 to 3 meters in diameter. To recover it, deep-sea divers from the Special Salvage Unit (SSU) will be deployed en masse during slack tide when the water is calm.