North Korea's Kim Jong-un Repeats Embarrassment After 11 Years... "Increased Pressure for Retesting"

Kim Yo-jong: "Reconnaissance satellite will soon enter space to carry out its mission"
Similar to the failure of Kwangmyongsong-3 early in Kim Jong-un's rule
Political pressure increases... possibility of pushing for a re-launch

Kim Yo-jong, Vice Department Director of the Workers' Party of Korea, has affirmed the success of the 'relaunch of the reconnaissance satellite,' but there are forecasts that an early relaunch will not be easy. It appears to be an intention to achieve results before South Korea, which plans to launch a reconnaissance satellite by the end of this year, but it is being evaluated as a misstep that increases political burdens, similar to the failure of the 'Kwangmyongsong-3' during Kim Jong-un's early rule 11 years ago.

In a statement titled "No one can deny our sovereign right to launch satellites," released on the 1st through the Korean Central News Agency, Kim said, "If our satellite launch must be condemned, then countries that have already launched thousands of satellites, starting with the United States, should all be condemned, which is truly a self-contradictory sophism."

North Korea's Kim Jong-un

He added, "Even at this moment, the skies over the Korean Peninsula are filled with numerous reconnaissance satellites and high-altitude unmanned reconnaissance aircraft of various kinds, and the United States is relentlessly watching our every move with great attention. For them to criticize our military reconnaissance satellite launch is truly a case of the pot calling the kettle black," and "I affirm that the military reconnaissance satellite will soon accurately enter orbit and commence its mission." Kim Yo-jong's statement is interpreted as an attempt to legitimize the satellite launch and emphasize that it is a 'self-defensive right.'

North Korea launched the rocket 'Chollima-1' carrying the space launch vehicle 'Manlilyeong-1,' which it claimed was a military reconnaissance satellite, the day before, but it fell into the West Sea due to engine failure. Since January 2021, North Korea has been preparing to launch reconnaissance satellites as part of its 'Five-Year Plan for Defense Science Development and Weapon System Development.' Reconnaissance satellites, which can detect signs of enemy attacks in advance, are an essential task for North Korea's nuclear and missile 'preemptive strike' capabilities. Despite being Kim Jong-un's 'No. 1 directive project' that he has devoted great effort to for two and a half years, this was a significant embarrassment.

North Korea, Focused on Achievements but Suffers International Embarrassment... Increased Pressure for Relaunch

On the 1st, the Korean Central News Agency released footage of the launch of the satellite carrier rocket "Chollima-1," which carried North Korea's first military reconnaissance satellite "Malligyung-1," fired from the West Sea Satellite Launching Station in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province on the 31st of last month.

This failure mirrors the 'Kwangmyongsong-3' failure in April 2012. At that time, early in his rule, Chairman Kim was desperate for military achievements to consolidate internal unity and ahead of the 100th birthday of President Kim Il-sung. However, focusing more on building achievements than technical completion led to the satellite launch failure. This time as well, the North Korean leadership appears rushed to produce results before South Korea by launching a reconnaissance satellite first, with pressure mounting ahead of the upcoming Party Plenary Meeting this month and the 70th anniversary of Victory Day on the 27th of next month. The National Intelligence Service reported to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee the day before that North Korea showed signs of impatience, drastically shortening the final preparation process, stimulated by South Korea's successful Nuri rocket launch.

Given the increased political burden from the 'satellite launch' failure, an early relaunch is expected to be difficult. While Kim Jong-un will not be held accountable, the infallibility of the 'Supreme Leader' is inevitably tarnished. In fact, North Korea has only acknowledged the failure externally, while domestic media such as the Rodong Sinmun, which residents see, have made no mention of the space launch vehicle. Moon Sung-mook, Director of the Unification Strategy Center at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, pointed out, "There were many major opportunities to maximize external propaganda achievements, such as the South Korea-U.S. summit and the Group of Seven (G7) summit, but missing all these opportunities is evidence that preparations were insufficient from the start."

However, since Kim Yo-jong herself reaffirmed the commitment to the 'reconnaissance satellite,' there is also a view that they may push for a relaunch before the satellite launch notification period ends on the 11th of this month. An intelligence official said, "Since Kim Jong-un is greatly disappointed, there is a possibility of another launch within June to make up for it." Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University’s Department of North Korean Studies said, "It generally takes several months to identify and resolve the cause of the defect, so a relaunch within this month is unlikely," but also "Considering that North Korea has deployed weapons without practical verification and pushed missile development 'until it works,' the possibility of a relaunch at an unimaginably early time (accepting failure) cannot be ruled out."

Meanwhile, South Korean military authorities recovered debris from the North Korean launch vehicle in the West Sea just one hour after it fell and have begun detailed analysis. Once the analysis is complete, it is expected to confirm the performance of the propulsion engine, the use of foreign components, and the technological level.