Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warned that "tensions between the United States and China are shaking the international order, making the business environment more complex than during the Cold War era."
In a closed-door speech at the JPMorgan Global China Summit held in Shanghai on the 31st, CEO Dimon said, "We have never experienced such complexity since World War II," adding, "The Cold War era does not even fall within the category of this kind of (new Cold War era) complexity." This was a warning that the power struggle between the U.S. and China in fields such as advanced technology, science, and military security is creating the worst business environment in history, different from the U.S.-Soviet relations during the Cold War.
Since a Chinese reconnaissance balloon violated U.S. airspace in February, U.S.-China relations have rapidly deteriorated. The U.S. has strengthened alliances with semiconductor equipment powerhouses like Japan and the Netherlands to "target China" amid semiconductor supply chain issues, and China has retaliated with sanctions against the U.S. semiconductor company Micron, escalating the conflict. Chinese authorities have been increasing pressure daily, conducting raids on U.S. consulting firms Bain & Company and Capvision, as well as the practical business entity Mintz Group.
This complexity is becoming visible amid the economic slowdown of China, the world's second-largest economy. Foreign media noted that CEO Dimon's warning was raised on the same day that economic indicators, including China's manufacturing sector, showed deterioration against the backdrop of worsening U.S.-China relations.
On that day, the China National Bureau of Statistics released weak manufacturing data, heightening concerns about a global economic slowdown. China's May Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 48.8, remaining below 50 for the second consecutive month, indicating a continued contraction phase. This figure was slightly lower than the previous month (49.2) and significantly below market expectations (49.8).
With no signs of recovery in the real estate market, a key driver of China's economy, indicators such as industrial production and consumption also look bleak. Retail sales, which gauge domestic demand, increased by 18.4% year-on-year in April, falling short of market expectations (20.1%). Industrial production, reflecting manufacturing trends, rose by only 5.6% during the same period, significantly below market expectations (10.9%) and showing a weaker trend than consumption.
Meanwhile, CEO Dimon expressed his commitment to business in China despite the worst U.S.-China relations. In his speech, he introduced that "the U.S. financial system operates based on transparency, investor protection, and the rule of law," while advising that "(in addition to U.S.-China conflicts) policy uncertainty from the Chinese government could undermine investor confidence."
The event was held behind closed doors with about 3,000 global business, economic, and diplomatic figures attending, including former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who led U.S. diplomacy after the Cold War, and Robin Li, CEO of Baidu, China's largest internet company.
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