Turkey Presidential Runoff Today... Will Erdogan Open the Path to Lifelong Rule?

Foreign Media "President Erdogan Likely to Win"

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power in Turkiye for over 20 years, will face a runoff presidential election on the 28th (local time).

President Erdogan is confident of victory in this runoff, riding the momentum from his narrow nearly 5 percentage point lead over the joint opposition candidate, Republican People's Party leader Kemal Kılı?daro?lu, in the first round held on the 14th.

If President Erdogan wins, he could remain in power until as late as 2033. The constitution guarantees an additional five-year term if a sitting president calls an early election and wins. In this case, combining his tenure as prime minister during the parliamentary system era, Erdogan would have held power for a remarkable 30 years.

On the 26th (local time), two days before the runoff of the Turkish presidential election, a resident in Istanbul passes by a poster of Kemal Kılı?daro?lu, the unified opposition candidate and leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP).
[Image source=Yonhap News]

Kılı?daro?lu, who seeks to abolish the presidential system of imperial presidency and improve relations with the West, has not given up hope for a regime change until the very end. However, most foreign media predict that unless there is an upset in the runoff, President Erdogan is likely to win. Erdogan is expected to maintain the momentum from the first round, and he has also secured the support of Sinan O?an, leader of the Victory Party, who received 5.17% of the vote in the first round.

The vote shares of the two candidates, President Erdogan and Kılı?daro?lu, in the first round were 49.52% and 44.88%, respectively. Although President Erdogan led by 4.64 percentage points, no candidate secured a majority, leading to the runoff election on this day.

If President Erdogan is re-elected, the authoritarian regime based on the solid governance foundation he has built across all areas over the past 20 years is expected to be further strengthened. The US CNN network stated, "This election is the greatest challenge to Turkiye's strong leader," adding, "He faced criticism that the economic headwinds and the devastating earthquake in February were worsened by poor building controls and rescue efforts."

Concerns are also raised that Turkiye's economic difficulties will worsen as the religious and irrational economic policy of insisting on low interest rates despite hyperinflation continues. President Erdogan has repeatedly stated that he will maintain the current economic policy, mentioning the recent downward trend in inflation.