[Reporter’s Notebook] The Calculations Behind Their Confessions

There is one commonality among the major cases recently targeted by the prosecution's investigative efforts: individuals who confessed to parts of the incidents during prosecution investigations have emerged.

It began with Yoo Dong-gyu, former head of the Seongnam Urban Development Corporation, candidly testifying about the details of the 'Daejang-dong development corruption and preferential treatment' allegations. Following this example, it is reported within and outside the prosecution that Ahn Bu-su, chairman of the Asia-Pacific Peace Exchange Association, spoke out regarding the 'North Korea remittance' case; businessman Kim Mo-shi regarding the 'Baekhyeon-dong project corruption' case; and Kang Rae-gu, former standing auditor of the Korea Water Resources Corporation, in connection with the 'Democratic Party convention money envelope distribution' case.

It is difficult for third parties to precisely understand the motives behind their decision to speak out. While the pressure exerted by the confined 5 to 6-pyeong (approximately 16.5 to 19.8 square meters) interrogation rooms at the prosecution office or the skillful questioning tactics of prosecutors and investigators may have played a role, these factors alone cannot fully explain the background of their confessions. It seems highly unlikely that they chose to cooperate out of a sense of justice to help uncover the truth of the cases. Rather, there is a possibility that feelings of betrayal arose as their accomplices attempted to use them as scapegoats to avoid punishment, prompting them to speak out.

Within the legal community, the prevailing analysis is that these individuals, being 'calculating people,' chose to confess. The Daejang-dong, Baekhyeon-dong, North Korea remittance, and Democratic Party money envelope distribution cases all share a structural similarity in that they involved attempts to gain unfair benefits by leveraging political power. To be involved in such cases requires exceptional skill in manipulating people, quick situational judgment, and a keen sense of cost-benefit analysis. It is believed that these individuals possessed such traits as well. Even while under prosecution investigation, they may have decided to confess based on assessments of the severity of punishment they would face if they confessed versus if they concealed the truth, as well as the potential future developments.

If their testimonies are entirely truthful without any falsehoods, it would be welcome as it could greatly aid in clarifying the cases. However, thanks to such confessions, there must be no instances where they receive lighter punishments than the crimes they committed warrant. Regardless of their confessions, appropriate punishments corresponding to their crimes must follow. The judgment of the law has begun. Ahn Bu-su was first sentenced to 3 years and 6 months in prison in the first trial. Voices have started to emerge suggesting that the sentence is very light considering the charges against him. A legal community official stated, "Considering the charges of embezzlement, instructing evidence concealment, and violations of the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act, the prosecution's initial demand of 4 years and the sentence handed down both feel light," adding, "We need to observe whether the sentence in the appellate trial will align with the public's expectations."