Industrial Research Institute May Expert Survey Index (PSI) Announcement
"Inventory Adjustment from Mid-Year... Demand Recovery in Second Half"
The Semiconductor sector showed positive results as both the May current status and June outlook figures in the Industry Research Institute Expert Survey Index (PSI) rose. However, full-scale business recovery is expected to be possible around the second half of the year.
The Industry Research Institute announced the PSI reflecting the May current status and June outlook on the 21st. This PSI was commissioned to FnGuide and Metrics, with responses collected from 162 experts across 221 industries between the 8th and 12th. The index ranges from 0 to 200, with 100 (no change compared to the previous month) as the baseline; values closer to 200 indicate more opinions of increase (improvement), while values near 0 indicate more opinions of decrease (deterioration).
The May PSI for the domestic manufacturing industry's business conditions recovered to the baseline (100), unlike the previous month (95). All detailed indicators, including domestic market sales (100) and exports (109), showed increases. The June business outlook PSI rose to 104, continuing the upward trend from the previous month (101). Specifically, domestic demand (100) and production (1102) recovered to the baseline.
Current Status of Domestic Manufacturing Industry by Detailed Sector PSI (May 2023) / [Image provided by Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade]
Looking at the PSI by detailed sectors, the semiconductor current status and outlook PSI rose alongside sectors such as display and automobiles. Although the overall figures still fell below 100, the recovery trend was clear. The May semiconductor business condition PSI recorded 70, a double-digit increase from the previous month (60). The June business outlook PSI for semiconductors also rose to 80 from 75 in the previous month. Following a sharp 37-point surge in the May business outlook PSI compared to the previous month, the increase continued into June.
With the semiconductor current status and outlook PSI for May and June, which correspond to the second quarter, showing a positive trend, the market is also making similar forecasts. On the 16th, the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) released the 'Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitoring Report' surveyed with market research firm TechInsights, noting that second-quarter integrated circuit (IC) sales and silicon shipments increased compared to the previous quarter, suggesting some positive signals in the market.
However, full-scale business recovery is expected to be possible only in the second half of the year. Clark Chung, Senior Director at SEMI, said, "Although semiconductor fab utilization rates sharply declined due to weak semiconductor demand and increased inventory, inventory adjustments will be completed by mid-year," adding, "Demand can recover in the second half."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
