Are the consecutive East Sea earthquakes signs of a Baekdusan eruption? ... The truth

Concerns Over Baekdusan Eruption Amid Consecutive Earthquake Reports
KMA: "Magma Stable... No Eruption Expected Soon"

As earthquakes continue to occur in the East Sea, concerns are rising that Baekdusan might erupt. Although the "Baekdusan 100-year cycle eruption theory" has been steadily spreading online recently, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) considers the possibility of an eruption at Baekdusan in the near future to be low.

On the morning of the 15th at 6:27 AM, a magnitude 4.5 earthquake occurred 52 km northeast off the coast of Donghae City, Gangwon Province. The depth of the epicenter is estimated to be 32 km.

The KMA analyzes that this earthquake occurred on a reverse fault. A reverse fault is a fault where the upper block moves upward relative to the lower block along the fault plane, and it appears that the earthquake was caused by movement along this reverse fault.

Although the cause of this earthquake is not believed to be related to an eruption of Baekdusan, concerns about a Baekdusan eruption have arisen due to the recent series of earthquakes. Interest in Baekdusan's volcanic activity has increased as volcanoes have erupted worldwide, such as in Indonesia in March and Tonga last year.

The Baekdusan eruption rumor spreading mainly online originates from the "100-year cycle theory." Baekdusan has erupted roughly every century over the past 1,000 years since its major eruption in 946, and since the last recorded eruption was in 1925, there is a claim that it is highly likely to erupt again in 2025.

Mauna Loa, the world's largest active volcano, located near Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii, USA. [Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

However, the 1925 eruption record is solely based on the records of Soviet Academy of Sciences researchers at the time, and there is academic disagreement on whether this should be officially recognized as an eruption.

There are also claims that recent strong earthquakes, such as the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake and the 2017 Pohang earthquake, are signs of an impending Baekdusan eruption.

However, the KMA considers the possibility of a Baekdusan eruption in the near future to be unlikely.

Park Soon-cheon, head of the Earthquake and Volcano Research Division at the KMA, explained, "Since Baekdusan is an active volcano, there is a possibility of eruption, but we do not believe it will erupt in the near future. According to analyses over the past few years, the magma is in a stable state."

The claim that recent earthquakes could influence Baekdusan's eruption is also considered untrue. Earthquakes below magnitude 4.5 occurring in the East Sea do not have enough energy to affect Baekdusan.

Park said, "For an earthquake to affect the magma beneath the volcano, a large earthquake would need to occur very close to Baekdusan. There is research showing that when an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher occurs about 600 km in a straight line from Baekdusan, changes in seismic activity within Baekdusan have been observed."