[why & next] The US Reaches Out First, China Still Stiff... Will the Conflict Atmosphere Change?

Surprise Meeting Between Bilateral Diplomatic and Security Lines
US Requests Defense Minister Talks
China Expresses Dissatisfaction with US China Regulations
Uncertain Whether Reconciliation Gesture Will Be Accepted

A shift in the atmosphere is being detected on the frontlines of the conflict between the United States and China, which had reached its peak. When China’s ‘reconnaissance balloon’ appeared over U.S. airspace last February, a crisis on the brink of eruption dominated the scene. However, recently, the core diplomatic and security lines of the two countries have held a surprise meeting, and discussions about a defense chiefs’ meeting have taken place, signaling a significant change in the mood. This has raised expectations for a reconciliation atmosphere between the two nations. However, since the U.S. continues to pressure China with export control regulations while only intending to keep ‘communication channels’ open, there is skepticism about whether these moves will actually lead to an improvement in the structure of U.S.-China conflicts.

U.S. President Joe Biden (left in photo) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (right in photo)

◆ Surprise Meeting of U.S.-China Core Diplomatic and Security Lines

On the 11th (local time), the White House announced in a press release that Jake Sullivan, U.S. National Security Advisor, and Wang Yi, member of the Chinese Communist Party Central Political Bureau (Director of the Party Central Foreign Affairs Office), met in Vienna, Austria. The meeting took place over two days, from the 10th to the 11th. According to the White House statement, both sides discussed issues including Taiwan, the war in Ukraine, and bilateral relations. They also agreed to maintain strategic communication channels going forward.

Jake Sullivan, U.S. White House National Security Advisor

China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency commented on the meeting, stating that "Wang Yi fully explained China’s firm stance on the Taiwan issue and exchanged views on Asia-Pacific affairs, Ukraine, and other international and regional issues," adding that "both sides removed obstacles in China-U.S. relations and held frank, in-depth, substantive, and constructive discussions."

Furthermore, the U.S. proposed to China to hold a bilateral meeting between U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu during the upcoming Asia Security Conference (Shangri-La Dialogue) scheduled for June 2?4 in Singapore. The defense ministers of both countries have traditionally met annually at the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore during the Asia Security Conference. However, since Li Shangfu’s appointment as China’s Defense Minister in March, he has yet to meet directly with Secretary Austin.

Major foreign media, citing diplomatic sources, also reported that the U.S. has recently embarked on a strategy of continuously requesting meetings with Chinese officials ranging from lower-ranking personnel to President Xi Jinping over the past few weeks.

◆ U.S. Wants to Meet VS. China’s Silence

The U.S. initiative to resume dialogue with China is analyzed as a judgment that the geopolitical crisis could escalate further due to the conflict between the two countries. Previously, U.S.-China relations reached an extreme point in February when the U.S. identified the balloon launched by China as a ‘reconnaissance’ device and shot it down over the mainland airspace.

However, major media outlets analyze that the U.S. recognizes that blocking dialogue with China amid rising military tensions over Taiwan and the possibility of China expanding military support to Russia could exacerbate the negative aspects of the conflict. Bloomberg reported, "Efforts by the U.S. to normalize relations continue," adding, "The comprehensive efforts by the U.S. also imply that if President Xi refuses, he will be labeled as an uncommunicative figure."

Chinese President Xi Jinping [Photo by Yonhap News]

Following the U.S. moves to secure communication channels, there is a positive outlook that telephone calls between the two heads of state could resume. Despite persistent requests from the U.S., China has consistently remained unresponsive, resulting in an indefinite delay in phone calls between the two presidents. Bloomberg stated, "The talks between diplomatic lines have laid the groundwork for the possible resumption of phone calls between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden," noting that "President Biden informed reporters on the 10th that there has been progress in pushing for a call with President Xi."

However, it is uncertain whether China will respond to the U.S. gestures. According to major foreign media on the 10th, China reportedly rejected the U.S. request to hold a defense ministers’ meeting. China’s reluctance to normalize relations is largely attributed to U.S. export controls, including semiconductor export restrictions.

Ryu Fengyu, Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., told China Daily, China’s state-run English-language newspaper, earlier this month, "Communication for the sake of communication is unnecessary," adding, "U.S. senior officials say that relations with China are not a zero-sum game, but their actions differ from their words." He emphasized that easing restrictions should be prioritized to restore U.S.-China relations.

Experts have stated that for the U.S. to restore relations with China, it must consistently convey that the door to dialogue remains open. Pressure should be applied to portray China, which refuses to engage in dialogue, as an uncooperative country in the international community.

Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. foreign policy think tank, said, "The longer China refuses to meet with the U.S., the more European and Asian countries will perceive China’s behavior as uncompromising," adding, "The way to contain China is to show Asian countries that there is always a willingness to engage in dialogue with China."