Is a 'Record Heatwave' Coming This Summer? WMO Says "Higher El Nino Probability, Accelerated Warming"

World Meteorological Organization Report
"El Nino Transition Probability Increases to 80% from June to August"

Starting from the second half of this year, the 'El Ni?o' phenomenon is expected to occur, potentially causing various weather anomalies such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts around the world.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated in a report on the 3rd (local time), "Despite a temporary slowdown in global temperature rise due to La Ni?a over the past three years, we have experienced the warmest eight years on record," adding, "When El Ni?o occurs, warming accelerates, and global temperatures are more likely to break records."

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WMO diagnosed that the La Ni?a phenomenon, which began in September 2020 and lasted for over three years, has ended after three years. With the end of La Ni?a, characterized by cooler-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific, there is a possibility of the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, where warm waters from the western Pacific move into this region.

La Ni?a refers to a condition where the sea surface temperature in the ENSO monitoring area of the Pacific Ocean?between latitudes 5°S to 5°N and longitudes 170°W to 120°W?remains at least 0.5 degrees Celsius below average for five consecutive months or more, based on a three-month moving average. Conversely, El Ni?o is a phenomenon occurring every 2 to 5 years, where the sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern and central Pacific are higher than usual for several months.

Currently, the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific is in an 'ENSO neutral' state, showing no significant fluctuations. However, WMO analyzed that the neutral state is likely to shift to El Ni?o around the second half of this year. The probability of El Ni?o transition is 60% between May and July, and rises to 80% between June and August.

WMO also forecasted a significant rise in global temperatures due to El Ni?o. The year 2016, when El Ni?o and greenhouse gas effects coincided, was the hottest year on record, and with the recurrence of El Ni?o, similar or even more severe conditions may occur.

Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of WMO, emphasized, "While the arrival of El Ni?o may end the influence of La Ni?a, it can trigger more extreme weather events," adding, "The United Nations needs to provide early warnings and responses to protect people's safety."