Will Japan's Kishida Present Yoon with a 'Busan Expo Official Support' Gift?

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida's Early Return Visit on 7-8th
Key for Korea's 'Survival' to Officially Support Busan Expo

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to South Korea on the 7th and 8th has been confirmed, drawing attention to the 'visit gift' he will present to President Yoon Suk-yeol. There is keen interest in whether a 'gift bundle' responding to President Yoon's decision to normalize Korea-Japan relations despite domestic opposition will be offered.

This will be the first time in 12 years since then-Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda visited South Korea in October 2011 that a Japanese prime minister has come for a bilateral summit. From our perspective, following the 'forced labor solution announcement' which generously conceded to demands including compensation from wartime companies and direct apologies, Prime Minister Kishida has achieved a by-election victory and a rebound in approval ratings, raising expectations that he will offer a sincere and reciprocal response.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Some speculate that an unexpected gesture of goodwill from Prime Minister Kishida, through the resumption of shuttle diplomacy, could be an 'official declaration of support' for the 2030 Busan Expo. From our standpoint, having official support from a geographically neighboring country, which is a factor in the evaluation by the International Bureau of Expositions (BIE), could give momentum to the bid negotiations. Since the Korean government is putting its all into securing the 2030 Busan Expo, an official declaration of support as a 'gift' in response to President Yoon's visit to Japan could be a positive symbol of friendship between the two countries.

Typically, Expo support declarations are kept confidential because they must consider friendly relations with other competing countries (Saudi Riyadh, Ukraine Odesa, Italy Rome). However, when an alliance with one country is active, a country may publicly express support despite risking strained relations with competitors.

A recent example is the Netherlands, which became the first Western European country to officially support the Busan Expo bid. China also early on expressed support for the Saudi Riyadh 2030 Expo. China is the largest purchaser and user of oil from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping are shaking hands during their meeting in Beijing in 2019.

Since Japan is preparing to host the 2025 Osaka-Kansai Expo, it is believed that they understand our position. Choi Tae-won, chairman of SK Group and co-chairman of the Busan Expo bid committee, met with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last fall to request support for the Busan Expo bid.

However, a senior government official stated, "Officially declaring support for a specific country at the Expo does not align with Japan's usual diplomatic style, so we understand that no such schedule is prepared for Prime Minister Kishida's visit," adding, "(However) while Japan may not make a public declaration, expectations are high that they will cast their vote for our country's Expo bid."