[One Year of Yoon Administration] ② First Prosecutor-Origin President... Tumultuous Political Struggles

Rapid Progress Without Yeouido-Style Political Grammar
Public Opinion Backlash Keeps Government Approval Ratings in 20-30% Range
Experts Say "Strengthen Communication" to Soothe the People

"He is someone who does not understand Yeouido's political grammar or calculations. He owes nothing to anyone and has no faction."

This is what President Yoon Suk-yeol said during his final campaign rally in last year's presidential election. As the Prosecutor General who clashed with the Moon Jae-in administration while investigating allegations of family corruption involving former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk, he became South Korea's first president from a prosecutorial background through the last presidential election. With no prior political experience, President Yoon has shown no signs of Yeouido-style political grammar even after taking office. Because of this, despite extreme confrontations between the ruling and opposition parties, he is evaluated as pushing various policies creatively and swiftly. However, distancing himself from Yeouido politics has resulted in insufficient communication and consequent public opinion deterioration, causing a decline in approval ratings for his administration, which remains a challenge.

"Strict Response to Illegal Acts"… Yoon Suk-yeol's Rule of Law

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In December last year, during the height of the Cargo Solidarity collective transport refusal crisis, President Yoon ordered a strict response based on law and principles, saying, "Illegal and violent acts are rampant." Accordingly, the government issued orders forcing a return to work, canceling cargo licenses, and imposing criminal penalties if not complied with. The Cargo Solidarity returned to work after 16 days of strike.

This is a representative scene showing President Yoon's governance style, which is distant from Yeouido politics. Previous administrations with extensive political experience resolved the Cargo Solidarity strikes by negotiating compromises each time. However, President Yoon, whose profession involved scrutinizing legality, was different. He maintained the stance of "not compromising with illegality," ultimately leading the Cargo Solidarity to surrender.

The relationship with the opposition is similar. President Yoon took office in a political structure where the ruling party is in the minority and desperately needs opposition cooperation. However, since taking office, he has never held a summit meeting with opposition leaders. This is interpreted as a declaration of his intention not to collude in the political relations between the ruling and opposition parties, which have been embroiled in 'judicial risks' such as investigations into Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, since last year's presidential election and the Daejang-dong scandal. A ruling party official analyzed, "President Yoon's governance style is exactly out of sync with what the existing political circles expect," adding, "Because it is unpredictable with conventional political language, it was effective in major issues like the Cargo Solidarity strike."

In this regard, Hong Joon-pyo, mayor of Daegu and a former competitor in the People Power Party presidential primary, recently said on a terrestrial broadcast debate on the 14th, "Because presidents with political skills have done so many absurd things, the people got tired of it and elected someone without political skills (President Yoon Suk-yeol)," adding, "(The people) elected a former Prosecutor General to enforce the law, and that president is now doing exactly that."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Declining Approval Ratings Remain a Challenge

The problem lies in President Yoon's approval ratings for his administration, which consistently emphasize 'law and principles' on various issues. According to Gallup Korea, in a policy evaluation survey conducted on the first anniversary of Yoon's inauguration (targeting 1,001 men and women nationwide aged 18 and over, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and a response rate of 10.2%; detailed information is available on the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website), negative evaluations exceeded positive ones in all areas including economy (positive 25%, negative 61%), welfare (33%, 50%), education (23%, 47%), North Korea policy (35%, 51%), diplomacy (27%, 60%), and public official appointments (19%, 63%).

In particular, President Yoon's approval ratings have remained stagnant in the 20-30% range. According to Gallup Korea, his approval ratings showed a smooth start similar to other presidents since democratization, recording 52% (2nd week of May), 51% (3rd week of May), 53% (1st week of June), and 53% (2nd week of June) from early May to mid-June last year.

However, in the 3rd week of June, the approval rating fell below 50% for the first time due to controversies over appointments such as Park Soon-ae, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Education, and Jeong Ho-young, Minister of Health and Welfare nominee. From June onward, amid private hiring controversies and civilian accompaniment scandals, the ratings plummeted, hitting a historic low of 24% in the 5th week of September during visits to the UK, US, and Canada.

Since then, approval ratings have partially risen or stabilized when issues that gain public consent arise, such as partial restoration of prosecution investigations, early resolution of strikes by militant unions like the delivery workers' union, transparency in union accounting, and strict orders against employment succession. However, ratings remain trapped in the 20-30% box. Other polling agencies like Realmeter sometimes show ratings in the 40% range, but the overall trend is similar.

One factor is the inadequate public opinion gathering process on sensitive issues such as lowering the elementary school entrance age to five, which led to Park's resignation in July last year, and the recent work hour reform allowing up to 69 hours per week. Regarding the work hour reform, Minister of Employment and Labor Lee Jeong-sik drew criticism by saying, "The MZ generation (born 1980-2000) speaks up even to the chairman."

Also, President Yoon's remark that working over 60 hours a week is difficult caused internal disagreement among presidential aides, prompting the president to address the issue directly to manage the situation. Around the time of the Korea-Japan summit last month, the government's solution to the forced labor issue, centered on third-party compensation, faced criticism for lacking prior public consultation, leading to persistent public distrust. Additionally, there is analysis that the ruling and opposition parties' tendency to get bogged down in politics over common election pledges on livelihood policies is causing public fatigue.

Experts: Securing Communication Is the Top Priority

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Experts point out that the declining trust in President Yoon's governance will pose a significant problem for future policy momentum and suggest that securing communication with the public should be the top priority. Political commentator Lee Kang-yoon said, "The simple reason for the drop in approval ratings over the first year is the 'lack of communication,'" adding, "Not all pledges can be fulfilled, and some may be modified during policy implementation. In that case, it is only right to explain this to the public first."

Choi Jin, director of the Presidential Leadership Research Institute, said, "There has been a tendency to get caught up in politics rather than focusing entirely on livelihood policies for the people," and suggested, "Although diplomacy seems to be heading in the right direction, it is necessary to soothe public sentiment along the way." Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University also mentioned, "The presidential office needs to be cautious in managing messages to persuade the public."

Mayor Hong diagnosed, "Governance actions are understood by the public if properly explained, but since those explanations are not reaching the public and are not being made by the presidential office, the president is being pushed into a corner unilaterally."