[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Strengthened Extended Deterrence... 'Nuclear Weapons' Loaded in ROK-US Combined Exercises

Significant Increase in Nuclear-Armed Forces During Joint Exercises
Possibility of South Korean Military Participation from Nuclear Weapon Planning Stage

On the 26th (local time), President Yoon Suk-yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden held a summit and adopted the "Washington Declaration," which includes enhanced extended deterrence measures such as the establishment of a Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) to counter North Korea's nuclear threats. It is expected that our military will be included in nuclear readiness exercises that the U.S. has previously conducted independently. Going forward, the number of U.S. strategic assets equipped with nuclear weapons in the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises will significantly increase, likely provoking stronger opposition from North Korea as well as China and Russia.

According to military authorities on the 27th, the two countries plan to further discuss joint exercises involving U.S. strategic assets through the NCG. Earlier, President Yoon explained at a joint press conference following the summit, "The Republic of Korea and the United States will regularly consult on sharing information regarding nuclear and strategic weapons operation plans in response to the North Korean threat, and will jointly plan and execute operations combining Korea's advanced conventional forces with U.S. nuclear forces. The results will be reported to both heads of state."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Until now, our military has not conducted military exercises involving the use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, during South Korea-U.S. joint exercises, when the U.S. ‘Big Three strategic bombers’?the B-52, B-1B, and B-2?conducted joint operations on the Korean Peninsula, only escort flights were performed. However, if a joint strategic weapons operation plan involving nuclear weapons is developed, our forces can participate from the very early stages, according to military officials.

For example, the U.S. Strategic Command’s nuclear readiness exercise "Global Thunder 23," conducted from the 11th of this month, is a drill that checks the readiness of the ‘Big Three nuclear forces’: strategic bomber flights, intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) exercises, and nuclear-powered strategic submarine (SSBN) readiness. This includes specific assets such as Minuteman ICBMs, Trident submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and B-52H and B-2A bombers. Our military participated in this exercise in 2019 and observed it in 2020, but going forward, it will participate in this exercise and be involved not only in nuclear weapons operation methods but also in planning. Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "All operational details of U.S. nuclear forces are top secret," but predicted, "Instead, there is a high possibility that the U.S. will frequently expose deployments near the Korean Peninsula or highlight joint exercises with our military."

In fact, while the U.S. does not permanently station strategic assets in South Korea, it has expressed its intention to deploy them frequently. Among the three major nuclear forces?intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs), and long-range bombers?the U.S. has stated it will frequently deploy SSBNs to South Korea.

However, depending on the types and operational methods of strategic assets deployed on the Korean Peninsula, there is a strong possibility of fierce opposition not only from North Korea but also from China. There is a risk of renewed diplomatic friction between South Korea and China following the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) deployment. After the sinking of the Cheonan in 2010, China opposed the entry of U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carriers into the West Sea and took measures to block them. Concerns have been raised that the already strained South Korea-China relations due to the THAAD deployment could face additional burdens. The vicious cycle of increased pressure on North Korea leading to North Korea’s advancement of nuclear and missile capabilities → strengthened military responses by South Korea and the U.S. → China’s opposition and new provocations by North Korea, resulting in a deteriorating security situation around the Korean Peninsula, is also a concern.