[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Kim Jong-un "Plans to Launch Military Reconnaissance Satellite"... This Week's Turning Point

North Korea's military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 launch is imminent.

On the 19th, North Korea's Korean Central Broadcasting reported, "Chairman Kim Jong-un personally guided the National Space Development Bureau and ordered the launch of 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite No. 1' within the planned timeframe."

Military authorities predict that North Korea will launch the satellite around the 91st anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army on the 25th of this month. Although it is not a significant anniversary marked by five or ten-year intervals, which North Korea considers important, there is a strong possibility that it will be used as an occasion for provocation. Additionally, President Yoon Suk-yeol's state visit to the United States and the Korea-US summit will take place. Since discussions are expected on countermeasures against North Korea's nuclear threats, including extended nuclear deterrence, North Korea may respond with a provocative military demonstration.

The launch scene of Kwangmyongsong-4 at the Dongchang-ri West Sea Satellite Launch Station reported by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on February 7, 2016

For North Korea to launch a reconnaissance satellite, it must notify international organizations such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) within this week. Failure to notify international organizations will lead the international community to view the launch as part of a development process and impose sanctions. Technically, space launch vehicles and ICBMs are identical in that they use rocket propulsion to launch payloads beyond the atmosphere (space launch vehicles carry satellites, ICBMs carry warheads).

In the past, North Korea did not provide prior notification to international organizations necessary for the safe navigation of aircraft and ships during the launch of 'Kwangmyongsong-1,' drawing international criticism. However, when launching 'Kwangmyongsong-3 Unit 2' in December 2012 and 'Kwangmyongsong-4' in February 2016, North Korea notified international organizations of the possible launch periods ten days and five days in advance, respectively.

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Graduate School for North Korean Studies said, "According to the explanation disclosed through North Korea's state media, the purpose of the reconnaissance satellite appears to be to provide real-time location and movement information necessary to accurately target various missiles and nuclear delivery systems," adding, "It is expected that North Korea will comply with the procedure of notifying relevant organizations such as the International Maritime Organization to emphasize that this is a legitimate satellite launch."

Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University’s Department of North Korean Studies analyzed, "Since satellites are greatly affected by weather conditions, the launch date is likely to be adjusted accordingly, but there has been no news yet that South Korea-US reconnaissance assets have detected any prior movements at the West Sea Satellite Launching Station, so it is difficult to conclude definitively." He continued, "While it would be appropriate for North Korea to notify international organizations before the launch to maintain the pretext of 'peaceful space development,' given recent behavior, there is also a possibility that they will proceed with the satellite launch without notification."

Chairman Kim also "presented the combat task of firmly establishing reconnaissance information collection capabilities through the multi-directional deployment of several reconnaissance satellites," indicating that multiple launches could follow starting with the first satellite.

North Korea has claimed to have launched practical satellites and earth observation satellites after test satellite launches, but this is the first time it is launching a reconnaissance satellite. This reflects the ongoing achievement of the 'five major defense development goals' set by North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un, including 'hypersonic weapon development,' 'solid-fuel ICBM development,' and 'reconnaissance satellite development.'

Intelligence agencies and experts believe that having confirmed the 'operability and reliability' of ICBMs, North Korea is likely to raise tensions through high-intensity provocations such as normal-angle (30?45 degrees) ICBM launches, new solid-fuel ICBM tests, and reconnaissance satellite launches. Additionally, some assessments suggest that North Korea may conduct a seventh nuclear test to demonstrate the performance of the 'Hwasan-31' nuclear warhead.