[Global Issue+] NATO Expands to Russia's Doorstep... The 'Baltic Sea' Emerging as a Powder Keg

Buffer Zone Disappears with Finland's NATO Membership
Military Tensions Rise Around the Baltic Sea

On the 4th (local time), the Finnish flag was raised at the headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Brussels, Belgium. Finland was officially approved as NATO's 31st member on this day. Brussels=AP·Yonhap News

After a long wait, Finland has become the 31st member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), significantly shaking the geopolitical landscape in Europe. With Finland, which borders the heart of Russia, joining NATO and neighboring Sweden expected to join in July, Russia is facing complete isolation in Europe.

The European Union (EU) and Western countries have strongly condemned Russia, stating that Finland breaking its 75-year neutrality to join NATO is ultimately a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They argue that NATO's expansion was inevitable due to the breakdown of peace that had lasted for over 30 years since the Cold War and the growing security concerns.

Conversely, Russia has strongly criticized the Western countries, accusing NATO of breaking its Cold War-era promises with the former Soviet Union and continuing its expansion into Eastern Europe, ultimately advancing right up to Finland, which is at Russia's doorstep. With Russia's exclave Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea region now surrounded by NATO countries, concerns are rising that the confrontation between the West and Russia will intensify further as these areas become new conflict zones.

Russia Opposes Finland's NATO Membership... Nuclear Threats Intensify

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Russia is particularly vehement in opposing the accession of neighboring Finland. It has expressed strong displeasure by hinting at the possibility of deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, a neighboring country and de facto satellite state.

According to the British BBC on the 4th (local time), Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu warned, "Finland's NATO membership increases the likelihood of the Ukraine war intensifying, and we have no choice but to take corresponding measures." He added, "We have sent Iskander missiles, which are tactical nuclear weapons, to Belarus," and noted, "They can be equipped with nuclear warheads and deployed on aircraft."

Russian Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also stated at a briefing that "The Kremlin views Finland's NATO membership as a deterioration of the current situation," emphasizing, "NATO's expansion is an attack on our security and Russia's national interests." He warned, "This forces us to devise countermeasures from both tactical and strategic perspectives."

Russia's strong opposition stems from the fact that Finland is a neighboring country directly adjacent to Saint Petersburg, Russia's second-largest city. If NATO were to establish missile bases there, Moscow would be within range, making Russia highly sensitive to the situation. As a result, Finland maintained neutrality for 75 years after World War II, balancing diplomacy between the West and Russia.

With Finland's neutrality broken, Russia's diplomatic and trade routes with the West are expected to shrink significantly. If Sweden also joins NATO in July, Russia will be completely isolated in the Baltic Sea region, where major export and import ports to Europe are concentrated.

Russia's exclave Kaliningrad will also be completely surrounded by NATO countries. This area is Russia's only ice-free port among its official territories, hosting the Baltic Fleet and various missile bases, making it a strategic military stronghold. Recently, a referendum movement advocating for secession from the Russian Federation and unification with Germany has emerged in this region, further heightening sensitivities.

The military strength of newly joined NATO member Finland is also expected to be a significant burden for Russia. Finland reportedly has an elite standing army of 30,000 and over 250,000 reservists, with artillery forces stronger than the combined artillery of Germany, Poland, Sweden, and Norway. If the military alliance of NATO members around the Baltic Sea strengthens, Russia, which has deployed substantial forces to the Ukraine front, will face considerable military pressure.

Sweden's July Membership Key... Russia Likely to Launch Full-Scale Obstruction

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Accordingly, Russia is expected to launch a full-scale offensive to block Sweden's NATO membership, which is likely to be finalized by July. Sweden originally applied for NATO membership alongside Finland, but Turkey and Hungary opposed ratification, preventing Sweden from gaining approval this time.

Turkey opposes ratification because Sweden supports Kurdish armed groups that are in conflict with Turkey. Hungary opposes it because Sweden criticizes Hungary's political system. However, since the reasons given by these two countries can be easily resolved through negotiations with Sweden, suspicions have arisen that Russia may be manipulating these countries behind the scenes.

Inside and outside Russia, there are concerns that if Sweden also abandons its neutrality and joins NATO, a Baltic Sea blockade could occur. Whenever the Ukraine war intensifies or Russia's military provocations escalate, NATO might use the Baltic Sea blockade as a pressure tactic.

Russia still obtains most of its military funding from oil export revenues, and most of the oil destined for major export countries like China and India is shipped from the Baltic Sea. The Black Sea region, a battleground with Ukraine, is unstable for oil tanker operations, and ports in the Far East are too far from major oil production areas.

Considering these circumstances, Russia is expected to continue leveraging the pro-Russian regimes in Turkey and Hungary to obstruct Sweden's NATO membership until the end. With concerns rising that the Baltic Sea will become Europe's new powder keg, the new Cold War dynamics are expected to become even more pronounced.