It is projected that the world population will peak at 8.8 billion in about 20 years and then decline sharply.
On the 27th (local time), according to the British daily The Guardian, the Club of Rome made this projection based on the model of the sustainable growth project 'Earth4All,' which the organization is actively participating in.
The Club of Rome is a non-profit organization founded in 1968, mainly composed of international academics and business figures. It gained global attention in 1972 with the report "The Limits to Growth," which pointed out the risks of continued exponential economic expansion and population growth.
The Club of Rome's recent projection means that the previously feared "population bomb" will not explode. The Guardian explained that this projection is good news for the global environment because if the population bomb concern disappears, pressure on nature and climate could begin to ease.
However, co-author Ben Callegari said, "This report provides evidence that the population bomb will not explode, but we still face serious environmental challenges," adding, "We must work to address the current development paradigm of overconsumption and overproduction, which is a bigger problem than population."
The Club of Rome and Earth4All considered two scenarios: one assuming current trends continue as they are, and a more optimistic scenario assuming that governments worldwide implement more rapid improvements in policies.
Assuming current trends continue, the world population is projected to peak at 8.8 billion around 2046 and then decline sharply to 7.3 billion by 2100.
In the "more optimistic scenario," which assumes that governments worldwide increase taxes on the wealthy to invest in education, social services, and equality improvements, the world population is projected to peak at 8.5 billion in 2040 and decline to 6 billion by 2100.
Earlier, the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) announced in November last year that the global population had surpassed 8 billion. The UNPD projected that the world population would increase to 8.5 billion by 2030, 9 billion by 2037, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion in the 2080s.
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