[New Release] The War That Has Already Begun · Supermassive Threats

As tensions between the Taiwan Strait escalate, concerns about a crisis on the Korean Peninsula are also growing. Dr. Lee Cheol, author of "The War That Has Already Begun," asserts, "If China starts a war, it is a foregone conclusion that the Korean Peninsula will become a battlefield."

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the United States presented a wargame report assuming a scenario where China invades Taiwan, suggesting that China would have North Korea attack South Korea before launching an assault on Taiwan. It analyzed that China’s most rational plan would be to mobilize North Korea to attack South Korea to block U.S. movements while simultaneously attacking Taiwan.

William Burns, Director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), stated, "Xi Jinping has ordered preparations for a Taiwan war by 2027." General Michael Minihan of the U.S. Air Force Air Mobility Command also said, "My intuition tells me war will break out in 2025." North Korea has recently increased its missile provocations significantly, heightening tensions.

Dr. Lee Cheol proposes a bold strategy for South Korea, caught in the middle of great power hegemonic conflicts, to seize the initiative in war as the best strategic option. By analyzing statements from credible international diplomacy experts, he describes the consequences of a Taiwan Strait war in seven stages and advises on the strategic choices South Korea should make.

The author has been active in China for nearly 30 years after marrying a Taiwanese wife. He has served as KT’s Head of Technical Cooperation, Samsung SDS China Corporation Head, CEO of Digikite, SK Specialist, Head of Plantynet China Corporation, and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of the Chinese company TCL. He was also responsible for Asia-Pacific business development at Israel’s Catassense. He conducted a 10-part special lecture series titled "Changed China, Changing China" on SamproTV’s "Understanding."

The War That Has Already Begun | Written by Lee Cheol | Page2 Books | 376 pages | 18,000 KRW

This is a new book by "Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini, an emeritus professor of economics at New York University who predicted the 2008 global financial crisis. In an interview with CNN, Professor Roubini said, "Stocks and bonds will suffer even more severe losses over the coming years." He argued that inflation close to 6% will persist for some time, which could cause losses in traditional assets.

Therefore, he advises moving away from traditional investments like bonds and stocks. Instead, he suggests investing in short-term bonds, inflation-linked bonds, commodities, and gold. Professor Roubini warns of crises that are already here and will worsen, including debt shocks, inflation, U.S.-China conflicts, technological threats, and climate crises, and introduces investment strategies for this era of crisis.

According to him, there are at least three alternatives to diversify the fixed-income component of the 60/40 portfolio (an investment strategy where 60% of the total investment is in stocks with higher returns and volatility, and the remaining 40% is in bonds with lower returns and volatility).

First, invest in inflation-indexed bonds or short-term government bonds that quickly respond to high inflation. Second, invest in gold, other precious metals, and commodities that tend to rise in price during high inflation (gold is also a good risk management asset to prepare for political and geopolitical risks that may hit the world in the coming years). Lastly, invest in relatively supply-constrained real assets such as land, commercial and residential real estate, and infrastructure. However, considering climate change, investments in real estate, whether domestic or overseas, should target areas that can recover?regions not prone to flooding due to sea-level rise, hurricanes, or typhoons, and areas that will not become uninhabitably hot. Professor Roubini also mentions that investing in the Nasdaq 100 index could be a good option. The Nasdaq, mainly composed of tech stocks, includes not only companies likely to decline soon but also those maintaining strength and some newly listed companies expected to thrive in the future.

Supermassive Threat | Written by Nouriel Roubini | Translated by Park Seul-la | Hankyung | 452 pages | 22,500 KRW