[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea Again Deploys Military Satellite... What Is the Aim?

Possibility of ICBM Launch Under the Pretext of Military Satellite Deployment
High-Intensity Provocations Expected Following Defeats to Russia and China

North Korea has repeatedly emphasized its military reconnaissance satellite No. 1, which it declared would be ready by April. This is interpreted as a sign that it intends to continue provocations with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) under the pretext of launching the military reconnaissance satellite.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to defense authorities on the 23rd, the Choson Sinbo, the official newspaper of the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (Chongryon), which represents North Korea's position, stated in an article titled "Determination of the National Space Development Agency" the day before, "The National Space Development Agency announced that it would complete preparations for reconnaissance satellite No. 1 by April 2023," adding, "The strategic significance of reconnaissance satellites in enhancing the nation's war deterrence capability and firmly maintaining peace is very great."

Last March, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un inspected the National Space Development Agency and revealed plans to deploy a large number of reconnaissance satellites in sun-synchronous orbit (one of the satellite orbits) by 2026. The National Space Development Agency announced in December last year that it would complete preparations for military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 by April this year.

Our government has reported that North Korea is developing ICBMs under the pretext of satellites and designated 77 watch list items specialized for North Korea's satellite development, requesting international attention. These items are prohibited from being exported to North Korea via third countries. Additionally, the list has been shared in advance with key allied countries to help them enforce export controls against North Korea.

North Korea's ability to announce that it will complete preparations for military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 despite international condemnation is due to China and Russia. China and Russia, traditional allies of North Korea, have effectively acted as North Korea's "backers" by using their permanent membership on the UN Security Council to exercise veto power against additional sanctions resolutions on North Korea.

In this context, during the US-China summit held in Bali, Indonesia, last November, Chinese President Xi Jinping responded to US President Joe Biden's remark that "China has an obligation to prevent North Korea from testing nuclear weapons and ICBMs" by saying that "North Korea's 'legitimate concerns' must be addressed in a balanced manner."

From the perspectives of Russia and China, the upcoming trilateral summit of South Korea, the US, and Japan at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, this May is also unwelcome. Due to the US-China hegemonic competition and the prolonged war caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the confrontation between so-called "democratic countries versus authoritarian countries" is expected to intensify further.

Meanwhile, there is a prevailing view that North Korea will continue provocations before launching the military satellite in April. North Korean propaganda media "Uri Minjokkkiri" targeted the joint US-ROK amphibious landing exercise "Ssangryong Training" on the same day, stating, "It is basic military knowledge that landing means attack, not defense," and claimed, "This large-scale exercise involving massive troops and armed equipment clearly reveals that it is intended to practice a preemptive strike against the North."

North Korea has historically reacted sensitively to large-scale amphibious landing exercises involving infiltration of troops to secure target areas, and it is highly likely to provoke using the Ssangryong Training as a pretext. North Korea has also conducted military demonstrations by firing ballistic missiles repeatedly in response to the recently concluded US-ROK joint exercise "Freedom Shield (FS)."