[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] What Is North Korea's Next Provocation Card?

Possibility of 7th Nuclear Test and ICBM Equipped with Detonation Device
Next-Generation Submarine Unveiled to Showcase SLBM Capability

As North Korea escalates military tensions, attention is focused on its next provocation card. Experts predict that North Korea may conduct additional nuclear tests or detonate a nuclear warhead equipped with a fuzing device on the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to demonstrate the completion of its nuclear force.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Displaying ‘Fuzing Device’ Technology? = For a practical nuclear weapon, three key elements must be completed: the fuzing device, delivery (transport), and nuclear material. On the 20th, North Korea claimed that it "attached a fuzing device and detonated it in the air" in relation to a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). By combining not only the delivery of a nuclear warhead but also a device that detonates it at the desired time, it is said to have taken one step closer to the practical deployment of nuclear weapons. Subsequently, on the 21st, the external propaganda media Chosun Today published a photo compilation titled ‘Powerful Juche Weapons Brought by March 18,’ featuring photos of various weapons of mass destruction, including ICBMs. The publication of such external propaganda materials appears to be intended to flaunt possession of various nuclear weapon delivery systems.

However, North Korea has never proven success by attaching a fuzing device to long-range delivery systems. On July 4, 2017, North Korea test-fired the Hwasong-14 with a range of 10,000 km. On November 29 of the same year, it test-fired the Hwasong-15, evaluated to have a range of 13,000 km, capable of covering the entire North American continent. Then, on the 16th of this month, it launched the Hwasong-17, demonstrating flight capability with a range that can threaten the U.S. mainland. However, none of these missiles had fuzing devices. For this reason, experts speculate that North Korea may test again by attaching a fuzing device to a long-range missile.

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Graduate School of North Korean Studies said, "North Korea’s airburst detonation of an SRBM with a fuzing device seems to be a display of possessing the fuzing device," adding, "Next, to directly threaten the U.S. mainland, they could claim to have resolved suspicions about atmospheric reentry technology by attaching a fuzing device to an ICBM launched at a high angle."

◆ Possibility of Nuclear Warhead Miniaturization Test = A provocation to prove nuclear warhead miniaturization is also possible. This would be the 7th nuclear test. Although North Korea claims the practical deployment of nuclear weapons daily, questions remain about whether it can actually mount a nuclear warhead on ballistic missiles. To complete tactical nuclear weapons by miniaturizing the diameter and weight of the warhead, a nuclear test for performance evaluation is necessary. The third tunnel at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju, Hamgyong Province, has been suggested as a possible location for the 7th nuclear test. Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "It will be difficult to provoke local conflicts during the joint U.S.-South Korea exercises," adding, "There is a high possibility of a 7th nuclear test showcasing tactical nuclear weapons."

Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University’s Department of North Korean Studies also evaluated, "North Korea boasted of practical deployment by using the term ‘inspection firing’ instead of launch tests in its announcement on the 19th, following the 17th of last month, to overwhelmingly respond to the U.S.-South Korea readiness," adding, "This was to inform that they possess various launch means." Regarding the possibility of additional provocations, he said, "Launching an ICBM aimed at the U.S. at a normal angle would be a major provocation, so there is a risk and a high chance of interception, making it difficult," and added, "They will prepare the next provocation card after conducting their own 7th nuclear test."

◆ Submarine Launch? = North Korea may also announce the launch of a submarine that has not been showcased before. Among the submarines currently operated by North Korea, the only one capable of mounting submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) is the Whale-class (2,000-ton, Hero 8.24) submarine, a modified old Romeo-class submarine. However, its underwater launch capability has never been verified, and it has only one launch tube, failing to prove practical SLBM operational capability.

To solve these issues, North Korea appeared to be developing an SLBM-equipped submarine, presumed to be a modified old Romeo-class submarine, in July 2019, but it has not yet been launched. The new submarine under development is likely to be a 3,000-ton class, estimated to have three vertical SLBM launch tubes. It can launch large SLBMs such as the ‘Pukguksong-4·5ㅅ’ revealed in past military parades. Yang Wook, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, "The mobile launchers North Korea has revealed so far have various limitations due to North Korea’s road conditions," adding, "There is a possibility that they will unveil new submarine launches to diversify delivery means." He also added, "Since submarines have never launched missiles while moving, they could have an opportunity to challenge this with a new submarine."