[So Jong-seop's Sokterview] Kang Won-taek "People Power Party Feels Like Returning to the Old Party Chairman Era"

No One Around the President Seems to Speak Frankly
Lee Jae-myung Fails to Show Message of Change
Possibility of Three-Party Emergence in General Election, Generational Shift Expected

Compromise and conflict are two different faces of politics. However, Korean politics is characterized more by intense struggles than by compromise. This remains true today. The confrontation between the People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea is becoming increasingly fierce. Ahead of next year's general election, centrifugal forces can also be seen stirring within both parties. At the point of more than one year since his election, President Yoon Seok-yeol's solo run is also noticeable.

How should we view the current political situation and future trends? We met Professor Kang Won-taek of Seoul National University's Department of Political Science and International Relations, a leading Korean political scientist who has served as president of both the Korean Political Science Association and the Korean Association for Political Parties. The interview was conducted on the afternoon of the 16th at 2 p.m. in Professor Kang's office on Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, lasting one hour and thirty minutes.

Professor Kang evaluated that President Yoon Seok-yeol has set a policy direction but is politically insufficient, and that Representative Lee Jae-myung's crisis is not only due to judicial risks but also because he has failed to present a message of change. He predicted that rather than the general election proceeding as it is, there is a possibility of a three-party emergence and a high chance of change in the opposition party.

Professor Kang Won-taek evaluated that the current government has set a direction in terms of policy but is weak in political aspects. Photo by Heo Young-han younghan@

It has been one year since President Yoon Seok-yeol was elected.

President Yoon is doing mostly what most people expected during the presidential election. Few would have thought that President Yoon would not act this way. I want to distinguish between the policy aspect and the political aspect. In terms of policy, it seems he has a clear idea. Until last year, it was unclear what this government was trying to do. So it was somewhat unexpected, but at the end of last year, four major reform tasks were presented: labor, education, pensions, and health insurance. I judge that this indicates where the government intends to go.

Does this mean that a certain policy direction has been established?

Yes. All past presidents experienced trial and error for about six months after taking office. The Yoon administration was no different. Now the direction has been clarified, and the response to labor reform has been positive, so it seems the administration has gained confidence and stability. I was once asked to analyze President Yoon's speeches from last year, so I even looked at his speeches from his presidential candidacy days. The context was almost consistent. He had a consistent personal view. His style was direct and without embellishment.

How about from the perspective of power?

The biggest problem with former President Moon Jae-in was his inability to make decisions. Whether the direction was good or bad, decisive leadership for change was needed, but he failed to show such leadership. Many people felt frustrated. Now, President Yoon is leading from the front, saying he will take responsibility and cutting off certain things, which is likely to be evaluated positively later as achievements. After all, it creates change. In this regard, it is definitely positive.

How do you view the president's approval rating? It is early in his term, but it is lower than his vote share at election.

I don't think it is that low. People who do not respond positively to President Yoon are more in a wait-and-see mode rather than disliking him. This is because among those who voted for President Yoon in the last election, few had firm faith in him. One reason was the strong desire to change due to the Moon administration's poor real estate policies. Another was that many thought candidate Lee Jae-myung seemed somewhat unstable and untrustworthy.

So the fact that the approval rating is lower than then is not very meaningful. It would be problematic if it plummeted, but fluctuations of about 5% around this level are being managed stably. Even when approval dips, people tend to watch rather than shift to the opposition.

The Democratic Party's difficulties are not simply due to Representative Lee Jae-myung's judicial risks. It is because the Democratic Party still seems stuck in the past. For example, when President Yoon proposed a solution to the forced labor issue, the Democratic Party mentioned ‘Yi Wan-yong,’ which was somewhat absurd. It was the same pattern as when they mentioned the ‘Death Song’ during the Cho Kuk incident.

Professor Kang analyzed that even if the president's approval rating drops, it does not mean people are moving to the opposition party; rather, they are taking a wait-and-see approach, so it is not a major issue.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

President Yoon moved the presidential office to Yongsan, emphasizing ‘communication with the people.’ However, many evaluate this as insufficient.

Aside from policy, the political aspect is somewhat weak. Even in the recent party convention, it seemed he almost blatantly intervened. Because of clumsiness, it is uncertain how this will play out later. Ultimately, the most important thing is next year's general election. The current situation of a minority government was not created by President Yoon, so no one holds him responsible. Rather, people think it is a difficult situation. But if the ruling party loses next year's election, that is a different matter. President Yoon will have to take full responsibility.

How do you see the outlook for next year's general election?

The ruling party seems to think it is very easy now. They seem to believe they can win because Representative Lee Jae-myung is there. That will not be the case. The opposition will never remain weak or low in approval until the end. They will change by bringing in an emergency committee chair or something else. It is also important that the public has a dual mindset. People like leadership that breaks through and makes decisions, but when election time comes, their minds get complicated. They wonder if they should not check and balance. That will definitely work. Ultimately, the important thing is how much the ruling party tries to connect with and persuade the public from now on.

Thinking that if you work and produce results, people will recognize it is a bureaucratic mindset. The president seems to think that way too. But the public is somewhat uncomfortable with a lone wolf style. Even in a minority government, this is the case, but what if the ruling party gains a majority in the National Assembly? People start thinking like that. If such a mindset begins to operate in the metropolitan area, it may be difficult for the People Power Party to secure a majority.

Do you think the president should strengthen communication efforts?

But it seems there are few people around the president or in the presidential office who can tell him that. Even if they say it, he probably won't listen. There should be people who can say unpleasant things, but that does not seem to be the case. President Yoon seems to prefer talking rather than listening. A professor once said, ‘I met President Yoon, and he talked about 60-70% of the time,’ and I said, ‘That is the lowest ratio I have heard.’

Does that mean there is no one around the president to give him harsh feedback?

He cannot go alone without assistance. But the party has placed people who only listen to him. No other voices can come out from the party. For the president's sake, other opinions should be expressed. But it feels like going back to the old days of party chairmanship. Since the party is sensitive to public opinion, it would be best to convey that there is such and such public opinion now, but that seems difficult. People who can say unpleasant things are not visible.

Some say there is a possibility of a third party emerging. Is that realistic?

People are tired of the two-party system. If there is a third party, it can act as a mediator and, to form a majority, politics of concession to build legitimacy with that party will work. But with only two major parties, each side only looks to their own camp. Politics requires compromise, just like business. If the seller wants to sell for 10,000 won and the buyer wants to buy for 5,000 won, they can compromise at 7,000 or 8,000 won to close the deal. Now, one side insists on 5,000 won only, and the other insists on 10,000 won only. This escalates conflict. There is a possibility of a third party emerging.

Professor Kang diagnosed, "The dominance of the Presidential Office is a crisis factor for the People Power Party." Photo by Heo Younghan younghan@

Why do you judge so?

As people talk at drinking parties, if the People Power Party nominates more than 20 former prosecutors, it could cause turmoil. The Lee Jun-seok faction might jump out watching the situation. The Democratic Party is the same if Representative Lee Jae-myung tries to replace everyone with his own people. There should be a vision of what kind of Democratic Party Lee wants to create, but there is none. It is neither the ‘Kim Dae-jung Democratic Party’ nor the ‘Roh Moo-hyun Democratic Party’ now.

Looking at past presidential elections, although it seems there are only two major parties, a third candidate always appeared. Everyone is tired of the two-party fight. Everyone is exhausted. If someone pushes forward, a space for a third party might emerge.

Then, what is the key point to watch regarding next year's general election?

President Yoon's election means an era has changed. Although there was former President Choi Kyu-hah, President Yoon is effectively the first bureaucrat-origin president. The bureaucratic organization that had great power has appeared at the forefront of political power. The era of industrialization and democratization can be considered over. It is an era of political change, so changes in the entire political sphere forming the National Assembly are inevitable. President Yoon does not listen to other generations but seems to listen to the MZ generation.

Next year's general election may bring a wave of generational change. The 2017 candlelight rallies were a desire for political generational change. But the Moon administration misread that. They did nothing. The Park Chung-hee era ended with former President Park Geun-hye, and the democratization era has also ended. New people have come into the gap, and new leadership has emerged. This applies not only to the president. What I focus on is how far the generation will descend because generations represent symbolism.

What did you think of the People Power Party's party convention?

The so-called presidential office dominance is a kind of crisis factor for the People Power Party. The intervention was clumsy. It was too blatant and the expression was rough. They barely managed to secure ‘Kim Ki-hyun’s majority.’

It seems difficult to say everything is over. Problems may begin from now. It seemed very risky for the leadership to talk as if they owned the world at the meeting the day after the convention. If they continue like this and block other voices within the party, it may lead to internal division or be related to nominations.

Candidate Chun Ha-ram received 14.9% of the vote.

That is quite meaningful. He is not even a current lawmaker. What does he symbolize? There may be young generations and a desire for change. It is a high vote share. Even within the conservative party, there is an expectation for change symbolized by the younger generation.

But it is wrong for the current leadership to act as if they have 100%. It is important for the party to convey public opinion. But it does not seem that Representative Kim Ki-hyun will play that role. He will probably just faithfully do what he is told. As the relationship becomes one-sided, the party's autonomy seems to weaken significantly. It may proceed in a highly disciplined manner.

How about the Democratic Party?

The progressives must continuously present new agendas and future agendas. But the Democratic Party has lost that agenda. They still seem unaware of social changes. Society has changed, but they still respond in the 1980s-90s style. Beyond the number of seats, they need serious consideration about whether they can govern next time in the long term. It feels like they are accustomed to being the opposition.

How much effort did former President Kim Dae-jung (DJ) make to change the opposition-acclimated nature? That kind of urgency DJ had is not visible now, nor is the symbolism of change. Representative Lee Jae-myung's crisis is not only judicial risk. He has failed to show a message of political change. So far, the Democratic Party lives off the legacy created by former Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is speaking at the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul on the 13th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

How do you view ‘politician Lee Jae-myung’?

After the last presidential election, I thought about what Representative Lee left behind, but he left nothing. Former Presidents Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung survived politically through many crises because they believed in ‘democracy.’ Former President Roh Moo-hyun kept challenging despite being called ‘Fool Roh’ because he aimed to break regionalism. Politicians should have policy resources, but Representative Lee does not show that.

There is regret that if he had gone abroad for six months or a year after the presidential defeat, it might have been different. Going abroad would have allowed him to see what was invisible and discover new issues or agendas. But he immediately returned to politics and got trapped in a protective shell from the start. So he led the party from a defensive position from the beginning.

Will Representative Lee maintain leadership of the Democratic Party until next year's general election?

He will not let go. Because if he lets go, he thinks he will die. This strangely aligns with the interests of both parties. Ahead of the general election, the Democratic Party seems likely to undergo greater change. The party is being led by many first-term lawmakers and a first-term party leader who influence them. Therefore, political skills are not demonstrated, expressions are unrefined, and issue fighting is inadequate. They should coolly cooperate with the ruling party on necessary matters. Recently, the Democratic Party seems to oppose everything from A to Z. They fail to discover noteworthy issues. They appear politically weak.

[Who is Professor Kang Won-taek?]

Born in Seoul in 1961. Graduated from Seoul National University and earned a Ph.D. in political science from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). He has served as president of the Korean Political Science Association and the Korean Association for Political Parties. He mainly researches Korean politics, elections, and political parties. He has authored many books, including Decisive Moments in Korean Politics, Korean Politics, and Evaluation of 30 Years of Democratization in the Republic of Korea.