[Insight & Opinion] Saudi-Iran Relations Normalize... This Is Diplomacy

On the 10th, it was announced that Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to normalize relations in China. The two countries, which had severed diplomatic ties for seven years, decided to restore diplomatic relations by reopening embassies. China acted as a mediator. Prior to China’s involvement, the Iraqi government had facilitated the normalization of Saudi-Iran relations through its Shia population, as it was beneficial for Iraq’s stability. The United States and Israel appear displeased with this news. They are primarily concerned about China’s growing role in the Middle East. This situation might remind the US of the British Empire’s decline following the 1956 Suez Crisis.

Iran had been seeking normalization with Saudi Arabia for several years, but Saudi Arabia was reluctant. Saudi Arabia aimed to win the war in Yemen. However, the war prolonged and the damage increased due to Iran’s support for the Houthi rebels in Yemen. From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, ending the war with Yemen is essential for the success of its ambitious economic reform plan, Vision 2030. Above all, the threat to oil production facilities must be eliminated. This is why reconciliation with Iran is necessary.

Saudi Arabia has other calculations as well. Around the time news of normalization with Iran emerged, US media reported that Saudi Arabia was negotiating conditions for normalizing relations with the US and Israel. Saudi Arabia seeks compensation from the US, including the provision of nuclear reactor facilities and unrestricted acquisition of advanced US weapons. Choosing China as a mediator seems to be a way to show that there are alternatives besides the US. It can be seen as a message applying silent pressure on the US by leveraging China. During the Cold War, Middle Eastern countries often threatened to ally with the Soviet Union but none actually did. The likelihood of Saudi Arabia choosing China as a patron instead of the US is low.

For Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, improving relations with Iran must come first. Saudi Arabia values its status as a leading country in the Islamic world.

If Iran attacks Saudi Arabia and Israel’s improving relations from an Islamic perspective and positions itself as the sole leader of Islam instead of Saudi Arabia, it would be a significant burden.

Iran wanted reconciliation with Saudi Arabia even more. The main reason was Saudi Arabia’s public opinion campaign. Saudi media mobilized enormous resources to create an unfriendly public opinion toward Iran in the Arab and Islamic worlds. For example, the London-based television channel ‘Iran International’ has formed hostile public opinion against the Iranian government, supported by Saudi Arabia. Moreover, in recent months, anti-government protests have surged in Iran. Saudi Arabia directly or indirectly supported the anti-government forces involved in these protests. The Iranian government found this very uncomfortable and burdensome.

The agreement to normalize diplomatic relations between the two countries is only the beginning of a thaw. They have only agreed to further discussions. There are significant disagreements between the two countries. Saudi Arabia seeks reconciliation with Israel, but Iran is hostile toward Israel. Saudi Arabia wants a friendly regime in Yemen, but Iran supports the Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia aims to crush Hezbollah, while Iran considers Hezbollah a core ally. Negotiations will begin, but it is uncertain whether concrete results will be achieved. Both countries cannot ignore their regional status and relationships with allies.

Nevertheless, the process of this agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran shows a cool-headed strategic thinking where both countries give and take to serve their own interests. This is how diplomacy works.

Kim Dong-gi, author of 'The Power of Geopolitics'