[News in War History] Australia Joins 'Nuclear Submarine' Ranks... Trigger for Indo-Pacific Arms Race

To Counter China, Up to 5 Submarines to Be Purchased from the US
One of the Three Major 'Nuclear Forces' Shaking Nations and Continents
The Inventor of the Submarine Also Invented the Pressure Cooker

Editor's Note[News in War History] is a content series created to provide multifaceted perspectives on the constantly unfolding war and conflict news worldwide. Through 'News,' we first examine the current situation; through 'History,' we analyze the hidden meanings behind the news; and we also offer 'Implications' for the near future. We will bring this to you every Sunday, and after 40 episodes, it will be published as a book.

Recently, the Australian government declared that it will import between three to a maximum of five nuclear-powered submarines from the United States, becoming the world's seventh country to possess nuclear submarines. Centered around the AUKUS alliance?a trilateral military cooperation formed in 2021 between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia to counter China?Australia announced plans to receive technology transfers from the two countries and build its own nuclear submarines by the 2040s.

China, already under pressure from the QUAD alliance consisting of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, has strongly opposed this move, claiming it violates the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The U.S. and Australian governments argue that since Australia will only possess nuclear submarines and will not have submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), which are one of the three nuclear forces, there is no violation of the NPT. However, the controversy is expected to continue.

The USS North Dakota SSN 784, a Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarine of the US Navy. [Image source=Reuters·Yonhap News]

China, which is known to already have more than ten nuclear submarines, is particularly anxious about this development because Australia's acquisition of nuclear submarines increases the likelihood that U.S. allies in Asia, such as South Korea and Japan, might also acquire them. If a nuclear submarine acquisition boom spreads throughout the Indo-Pacific region and all U.S. allies possess nuclear submarine forces, China's military superiority in the East Asian maritime area is expected to significantly decline, which explains its strong opposition.

Accordingly, the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), which is considered to have the highest stealth until just before launch, is also receiving great attention. Let's take a closer look at this submarine that is shaking the entire security situation in Northeast Asia.

◆News: Up to 5 U.S. Nuclear Submarines Sold to Australia... The World's 7th Nuclear Submarine Power Emerges

U.S. President Joe Biden (center), Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (left), and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (right) held a joint press conference after the AUKUS summit (AUKUS: a security pact among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States to counter China) at the Point Loma Naval Base in San Diego, California, on the 13th (local time). San Diego = Photo by AP and Yonhap News

First, let's look at the news regarding Australia's acquisition of nuclear submarines. According to the Associated Press on the 13th (local time), U.S. President Joe Biden, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese held an AUKUS summit at the Point Loma Naval Base in San Diego, California, and issued a joint statement. The main point of the statement was that Australia would receive nuclear submarines from the U.S. earlier than originally planned.

The three leaders stated in the joint statement, "Within this year, Australian military and civilian personnel will be deployed to train with the U.S. and U.K. navies, and visits by U.S. nuclear-powered submarines to Australian ports will increase. From the early 2030s, the U.S. will sell three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, with an option to sell two additional submarines if necessary." They also revealed detailed schedules for Australia's nuclear submarine force acquisition, saying, "The U.K. will deliver AUKUS-class nuclear-powered submarines to its navy in the late 2030s, and Australia will additionally receive AUKUS-class nuclear-powered submarines for its navy in the early 2040s."

Summarizing the entire plan, Australia will purchase up to five existing nuclear submarines from the U.S. by the early 2030s and then receive technology transfers from the U.S. and U.K. to domestically build nuclear submarines for deployment by the 2040s. The Australian government also announced that it will name these domestically built submarines 'SSN-AUKUS' in honor of the AUKUS alliance.

If Australia proceeds with acquiring nuclear submarines from the U.S. as planned, it will join the ranks of nuclear submarine powers worldwide as the seventh country after the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China, and India. Australia's naval power is expected to be significantly enhanced, which has led to strong opposition from China.

According to a 2021 report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), China officially possesses 12 nuclear submarines, fewer than the U.S.'s 68, but among Asian countries, excluding India (which has one), China has the most powerful nuclear submarine fleet. If Australia immediately acquires five nuclear submarines, it is expected to increase deterrence against the Chinese navy.

◆History 1: Submarines Invented by the French Scientist Who Created the Pressure Cooker

Blueprint of the submarine designed in 1690 by Denis Papin, a French scientist and inventor of the pressure cooker [Image source= Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)]

Submarines, which have become one of the important strategic weapons today, actually have a surprisingly long history. According to the Encyclopædia Britannica, the origin of submarines dates back to 1578 when an English engineer named William Bourne first conceived the idea of a submarine, although it is unclear whether he actually built one.

The first person known to have actually built a submarine was Denis Papin, a French scientist famous for inventing the pressure cooker. His 1690 design sketch depicts a submarine shaped like a kettle, and it is said that he built about two of these submarines by 1692. Unfortunately, none of these have survived, as they were likely destroyed during experiments. Nevertheless, France honored his name by naming a World War I submarine 'Denis Papin' after him.

The image of French author Jules Verne, known as a pioneer in the fields of science fiction (SF) and adventure novels such as "Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea" and "Around the World in Eighty Days."

Since the 17th century, various inventions related to submarines have continued, greatly influencing the science fiction (SF) genre. Inspired by this submarine invention craze, Jules Verne, a pioneer of French SF literature, wrote the 1869 novel Vingt mille lieues sous les mers (Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea). The submarine 'Nautilus' featured in this novel has had a significant impact on the history of submarine development.

The invention of modern-style submarines began in earnest about 20 years after the publication of Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea, in the 1890s, when rechargeable batteries suitable for submarine propulsion were introduced. Thanks to the development of steam engines, internal combustion engines, diesel engines, and battery technology, submarines capable of running diesel engines on the surface to charge batteries and then submerging for underwater operations were created. European countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, the U.K., and France, where internal combustion engine and battery technologies were advancing, began producing submarines.

The first time submarines were deployed in war was during the Russo-Japanese War in 1904, but they were not used in actual combat. Japan ordered five electric battery-powered submarines from the Netherlands in June 1904, but these submarines arrived at Yokohama port in December 1904, after the war had ended. Russia also ordered submarines from Germany during the war but only used them a few times for reconnaissance before the war ended.

◆History 2: Germany Led in WWI, U.S. and Soviet Union Took Over After WWII

The image shows a German U-boat submarine notorious during World War I. [Image source: U.S. Library of Congress website]

The era of submarines in warfare truly began during World War I, famously marked by Germany's notorious 'U-Boat' submarines. These submarines are known for sinking over 500 ships.

However, most of the ships sunk by U-Boats were merchant vessels rather than warships. Due to battery limitations, U-Boats could not stay submerged for long periods, typically maintaining underwater status for no more than eight hours at a time. They were also limited to carrying about six torpedoes each. Because they had to surface frequently, it was difficult for them to win direct confrontations against the powerful British navy.

Their main mission was to sink British merchant ships crossing the Atlantic. Among these was the RMS Lusitania, a British civilian passenger ship whose sinking is considered a factor that led to the U.S. entering World War I. On May 7, 1915, while en route from Britain to the U.S., the Lusitania was torpedoed by a U-Boat off the coast of Ireland, resulting in the deaths of 1,198 passengers and crew, including 126 Americans. This incident increased pro-war sentiment in the U.S., which had previously maintained neutrality.

The USS Nautilus on display at The Submarine Force Museum located in Groton, Connecticut, USA. [Image source: The Submarine Force Museum official website]

However, after World War II, the center of submarine development shifted to the U.S. and the Soviet Union. The U.S. Navy first conceived the idea of nuclear-powered submarines in 1939, and after the development of small reactors suitable for submarines, the world's first nuclear submarine, the Nautilus, was built in 1951. The name was taken from the submarine featured in Jules Verne's novel Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea.

The Soviet Union, which was also developing nuclear technology, followed slightly later and successfully deployed the 'K-3 Leninskiy Komsomol' nuclear submarine in 1958. The reason the U.S. and Soviet Union competitively developed nuclear-powered submarines was due to their strategic advantages.

Unlike conventional diesel-powered submarines, nuclear submarines can remain submerged for very long periods because they do not need to surface to recharge batteries. In theory, they can operate underwater until the reactor's fuel is exhausted. Currently, they are known to conduct missions lasting up to 90 to 100 days to allow crew rotations.

Additionally, the ability to launch submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) from unexpected locations makes them formidable strategic weapons. Fortunately, except for the British HMS Conqueror, which participated in the 1982 Falklands War, no nuclear submarines have been deployed in actual combat.

During that war, HMS Conqueror demonstrated the power of nuclear submarines by sinking the Argentine cruiser Belgrano. Since then, the importance of nuclear submarine forces has been highlighted worldwide.

◆Implication: Nuclear Submarines Symbolizing Military Tensions in the Taiwan Strait

The John Warner SSN 785 nuclear submarine of the U.S. Navy, commissioned in September 2014. The U.S. Navy is reportedly planning to build more nuclear submarines in response to the expansion of China's naval power. [Image source=Reuters·Yonhap News]

The Indo-Pacific region, especially the area surrounding the Taiwan Strait in Northeast Asia, is expected to become the focal point of global nuclear submarine forces. As China is expected to more than double its nuclear submarine fleet by the 2030s, and with Australia's acquisition of nuclear submarines followed by anticipated developments in South Korea and Japan, an arms race appears likely.

Chinese media have been vocally urging the strengthening of nuclear submarine forces. On the 15th, the Chinese state-run Global Times quoted Chinese military experts saying, "Australia could pursue economic cooperation with China instead of military tensions, but AUKUS has tied Australia to the U.S. in an underwater containment against China." They argued that "China must build a multidimensional anti-submarine system to protect its sovereignty, security, and development interests from such threats, securing anti-submarine aircraft and helicopters, underwater detection devices, destroyers and escort ships equipped with anti-submarine weapons, as well as increasing both conventional and nuclear submarines."

As South Korea is caught in the middle of the U.S.-China hegemonic competition, it is expected that more proactive development efforts will emerge. The free and peaceful seas that Captain Nemo, the protagonist of Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea, wished for still seem like a distant dream.