[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] What Is North Korea's Next Provocation Button?

Military Provocation Intensifies Amid ROK-US Joint Exercises
US Force Deployment and Summit Checks Raise Possibility of Further Provocations

As North Korea raises the level of military provocations, such as launching strategic cruise missiles from submarines, concerns are growing that it will continue high-intensity provocations like launching solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or conducting nuclear tests. If U.S. strategic assets are deployed on the Korean Peninsula starting with the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises, the spring on the Korean Peninsula is bound to become unstable.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the military on the 13th, the ‘Freedom Shield’ (FS) joint exercise, which will be conducted for 11 days starting that day, includes large-scale field training exercises (FTX). About 20 FTXs are scheduled, including the division-level Ssangryong joint amphibious landing exercise and the so-called ‘decapitation operation’ joint special operations training (Teak Knife).

Before and after the joint exercises, the deployment of U.S. strategic assets such as nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, B-1B strategic bombers, and nuclear-powered submarines is also expected. Around the end of this month, the deployment of the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Nimitz (100,000 tons class, CVN 68) is expected, and during the exercise period, various strategic assets such as B-1B bombers and Aegis destroyers will also appear to demonstrate deterrence against North Korea. Missile warning drills among the three countries?South Korea, the U.S., and Japan?are also being discussed.

There are also consecutive political schedules that could provoke North Korea. Starting with the South Korea-Japan summit this month, the South Korea-U.S. summit in April, and the South Korea-U.S.-Japan summit in May are being pursued in succession. It is expected to serve as an opportunity to strengthen the South Korea-U.S. alliance under the Yoon Seok-yeol administration and to realize the will for ‘peace through strength’ as well as to enhance security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan.

North Korea may increase the intensity of provocations around this time. Earlier, on the 7th, Kim Yo-jong, North Korea’s deputy department head, threatened that they are "in a constant state of readiness to take precise, swift, and overwhelming action at any time depending on the judgment."

Accordingly, there is a possibility that North Korea will significantly raise the level of provocations by launching ICBMs at normal angles (30?45 degrees) or launching solid-fueled ICBMs. Since North Korea has already announced the launch of a military reconnaissance satellite, it is highly likely that it will attempt to enter orbit in April.

Furthermore, there are concerns that North Korea might push the situation on the Korean Peninsula to the extreme by conducting a seventh nuclear test. North Korea has completed preparations for nuclear testing, including restoring the Punggye-ri tunnel. Additional nuclear tests by North Korea are expected to involve either a super-large nuclear warhead or a tactical nuclear miniaturization test. If such high-intensity provocations are carried out, the situation on the Korean Peninsula will be in a ‘zero hour’ state.

Currently, with the ongoing strong confrontation phase involving security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan and North Korea’s countermeasures, it is difficult to create an environment that would put brakes on North Korea’s provocations.

Professor Park Won-gon of the Department of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University analyzed, "Although the burden of provocations will be high during the training period when U.S. strategic assets begin to be mobilized, since there was a case last November when provocations occurred during joint exercises for the first time, the possibility of additional provocations cannot be completely ruled out."