[Exclusive] North Korea Fires Over 100 Coastal Artillery Guns

Opening of Coastal Artillery Fire Next Day Short-Range Missile Launch
High Possibility of Intentional Provocation According to North Korea Scenario

North Korea has opened the coastal artillery gun ports along the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea. Since then, North Korea has raised military tensions by firing several short-range ballistic missiles in protest against the upcoming South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises scheduled for next week.

A military official said in a phone interview with Asia Economy on the 10th, "North Korea has been opening the coastal artillery gun ports north of the northwestern islands since the 8th," adding, "It is being analyzed whether this is part of winter training or a form of inspection." It is known that North Korea operates about 200 coastal artillery guns in active service, and it is understood that more than half of them have been opened.

The military believes it is unlikely that North Korea opened the coastal artillery gun ports for facility management reasons such as moisture removal or ventilation.

North Korea's coastal artillery position

This month, North Korea has also significantly strengthened its frontline forces. It has additionally deployed about ten 122mm multiple rocket launchers in Yeonan County, South Hwanghae Province, located 2 km opposite Gyodongdo Island in Ganghwa County, Incheon. The 122mm multiple rocket launcher is North Korea's main weapon used in the Yeonpyeong Island shelling incident.

North Korea has increased the scale of coastal artillery gun port openings at times when inter-Korean relations have deteriorated, such as the demolition of the Kaesong Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office and the shooting incident involving a Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries official. In 2010, when North Korea sank the Cheonan warship and shelled Yeonpyeong Island, it also built justification for high-intensity provocations through coastal artillery provocations and NLL incursions. In October last year, North Korea continued with announcements from the General Staff after the incursion of a merchant ship into the NLL and multiple rocket launcher firings by North Korean forces.

The military assesses that this recent opening of coastal artillery gun ports is likely an intentional provocation according to a scenario. In fact, the Joint Chiefs of Staff revealed that North Korea fired several short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) westward shortly after opening the artillery gun ports the previous day.

Initially, radar identified the ballistic missile trajectory as a single missile, but after using various other analysis methods, the military judged that multiple missiles were likely fired from the same location. Unusually, the military disclosed the detection of the SRBMs more than 1 hour and 20 minutes after the initial detection. This indicates that the missiles differ from the recently frequently launched SRBM 'trio'?KN-23, KN-24, and KN-25.

According to photos released by the Korean Central News Agency on the day, at least six "tactical guided weapons" were launched simultaneously. The agency explained, "The fire assault company confidently demonstrated their real-combat response capability by delivering a powerful simultaneous strike on the designated target area in the West Sea of Korea, simulating key elements of the enemy's operational airfield." This confirms that the fire training was a drill targeting the South Korean Air Force base. The agency also reported that Chairman Kim Jong Un attended the exercise with his daughter Kim Ju Ae and personally directed it.

North Korea's opening of the coastal artillery gun ports is a clear violation of the "September 19 Agreement." The "September 19 Agreement," concluded at the inter-Korean summit held in Pyongyang in September 2018, includes five areas of agreement: ▲cessation of all hostile acts ▲demilitarization of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) into a peace zone ▲establishment of a maritime peace zone in the West Sea ▲military guarantees to activate exchanges, cooperation, and contacts ▲measures to build military trust.

The military expects that North Korea will launch full-scale military demonstrations after the conclusion of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises following the closing of China’s largest annual political event, the "Two Sessions" (Lianghui), on the 13th of this month. It also anticipates that North Korea will carry out strategic weapon-level provocations around key diplomatic events such as the South Korea-Japan summit this month, the South Korea-U.S. summit in April, and the G7 summit in Hiroshima in May. A military official said, "North Korea is currently conducting winter training, and related developments are being tracked by South Korea-U.S. intelligence agencies."