[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] The Strengthened Argument for Nuclear Armament

US Intelligence Agencies Officially Assess "North Korea's Nuclear Threat Escalation"
Interest in Trilateral US-ROK-Japan Nuclear Sharing Possibility

Amid the escalating nuclear threat from North Korea, the debate over nuclear armament continues unabated. Even U.S. intelligence agencies have weighed in, assessing that North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un has no intention of giving up nuclear weapons and poses a significant threat to allied countries, thereby lending more weight to the nuclear armament argument.

On the 8th (local time), the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) released the "Annual Threat Assessment by U.S. Intelligence Agencies," which stated, "Kim Jong-un continues to demonstrate a strong commitment to strengthening nuclear armament and placing nuclear weapons at the center of the national security system," and evaluated that "he views nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as the ultimate means to guarantee his dictatorship."

Takehiro Funakoshi, Director-General of the Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau at the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (left), Kim Gun, Director-General for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Korea, and Sung Kim, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea, are posing for a commemorative photo on the 3rd at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs building in Jongno-gu, Seoul, before the Korea-U.S.-Japan senior officials' meeting on North Korea's nuclear issue. This face-to-face meeting among the Korea-U.S.-Japan senior officials on North Korea's nuclear issue is the first in about four months since the meeting in Honolulu, Hawaii, last February, and the first since the launch of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

The report also analyzed that North Korea is likely preparing for a nuclear test to activate the "tactical nuclear operations," which it has declared as one of its military modernization goals. North Korea aims to secure strategic superiority over South Korean and U.S. forces in the region through missile programs capable of carrying nuclear warheads. To this end, North Korea is expected to continue test-firing cruise missiles, ICBMs, and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) to verify the achievement of technical goals in its missile programs, strengthen deterrence, and normalize missile testing.

As North Korea advances its nuclear weapons capabilities, South Korea, the U.S., and Japan have decided to establish a new consultative body related to nuclear deterrence. The creation of this new trilateral consultative body to enhance information sharing on U.S. nuclear forces aims to secure the credibility of the U.S. extended deterrence, including the "nuclear umbrella," for South Korea and Japan, and to strengthen cooperation on nuclear deterrence.

The U.S. plans to deepen the effectiveness of existing consultative bodies such as the Defense Strategy Committee (DSC) at the general level and the Extended Deterrence Strategy Coordination Group (EDSCG) at the deputy ministerial (foreign affairs and defense) level, which are currently operating between South Korea and the U.S., by establishing this new trilateral consultative body with Japan.

Some argue that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), a ministerial-level consultative body, could also be discussed within this new consultative framework. Currently, the U.S. is known to hold a negative stance toward deploying nuclear weapons on South Korean soil, making the feasibility of nuclear armament low. Additionally, there is a need to reduce skepticism toward the nuclear umbrella, which operates based on the South Korea-U.S. alliance.

For this reason, discussions about the NPG have emerged. Countries such as Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, and T?rkiye have operated a nuclear sharing system since the 1960s, deploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons on their soil and coordinating their use through the Nuclear Planning Group. While the U.S. retains final authority over operational use, other non-nuclear allies jointly participate in decisions such as target selection.

There are also opinions that if a new consultative body is established among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, it should be expanded to include Australia.

Bruce Klingner, a senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation, a U.S. think tank, pointed out in a report titled "Crisis of Trust: The Need to Strengthen U.S. Extended Deterrence in Asia" that "both South Korea and the U.S. need to manage the rising calls for South Korea's own nuclear armament."

He also diagnosed that "South Korean nuclear armament advocates believe South Korea should receive treatment equivalent to that of the NPG," and suggested, "To collectively respond to threats in the Indo-Pacific region, Australia's participation in the establishment of the NPG should be encouraged," forecasting that "the creation of a new four-party defense coordination group will emphasize a cooperative approach between the U.S. and its partners in nuclear deterrence decision-making."