[The Temptation of Match-Fixing]⑤ To Prevent... "Consider Punishment for Student Athletes, Statistical Approach Needed"

Experts most frequently cite 'strengthening punishments' as a measure to prevent match-fixing. It is a choice expected to yield quick results. Ryu Hyuk, Inspector at the Ministry of Justice, also stated, "The message that disciplinary actions and punishments send to the outside world cannot be overlooked." Severe disciplinary measures and harsh penalties not only inform those involved about the seriousness of match-fixing but also raise awareness, thereby preventing additional occurrences of match-fixing in advance.

Soccer players training, unrelated to the article content
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Meanwhile, there have been recent calls to expand the scope and targets of punishments. Lawyer Jang Daryoung (CEO of LAW&S Sports Culture Law Policy Research Institute) particularly suggested, "We should consider revising the law so that elementary, middle, and high school athletes involved in match-fixing can also face criminal penalties." Under current law, elementary, middle, and high school athletes are not subject to criminal punishment even if they lead or cooperate in match-fixing. According to Article 14-3 of the National Sports Promotion Act, "No one shall receive, demand, or promise money or property benefits in exchange for illicit solicitations related to sports competitions," but Articles 47 and 48 exclude student athletes under the Elementary and Secondary Education Act from disciplinary actions if they violate this provision.

Suspicions of match-fixing in the August 2019 High School Football Federation match between Cheonan Jeil High School and Seoul Jaehyeon High School, where a 3-0 lead was overturned to 3-4, and the match on the 23rd of last month in the Spring University Football Federation between Yonsei University and Kyunggi University?where after scoring the opening goal, the team kept possession in their own half for over 20 minutes?have strengthened calls for punishing student athletes. In the sports community, there is also a view that such measures are necessary to prevent larger incidents from occurring. Stakeholders point out that school sports are always vulnerable to match-fixing attempts due to the prevalence of performance-oriented competition. Recently, increased smartphone use among student athletes has created an environment more susceptible to the temptation of match-fixing. Players who fall into match-fixing at a young age are highly likely to repeat such misconduct as adults and even in professional arenas.

On the other hand, voices from academia argue that punishment alone is not the solution. Many advocate for efforts to detect clues of match-fixing through statistical approaches and other methods beforehand. Various related studies are underway.

Dr. Choi Changhwan of Korea National Sport University argued at the October 2016 academic conference on 'Statistical Approaches to Detecting Match-Fixing' that suspicious matches could be filtered using 'Benford's Law,' and he also published a paper on this topic. 'Benford's Law' was established in 1938 by American physicist Frank Benford. It is a mathematical theory stating that in data primarily expressed in the decimal system (a number system using digits 0-9), the probability of the first digit being 1 or 2 is significantly higher than other digits. While people often assume that numerical data would have digits 1 through 9 evenly distributed at 11.1% each, in reality, the first digit 1 appears most frequently, and digits 2 through 9 occur much less often.

Dr. Choi believed that this principle could be used to find clues of match-fixing. For example, in badminton, the number of rallies needed to score one point; in taekwondo, the number of kicks by two players in a match; and in baseball, the number of walks and strikeouts recorded by a pitcher in each game?all have a higher probability of having low digits like 1 or 2 as the first digit. If results deviate from this pattern, match-fixing should be suspected. Dr. Choi introduced that the women's badminton doubles match at the 2012 London Olympics, where the Wang Shaoli-Wu Yang (China) pair deliberately lost to the Jung Kyungeun-Kim Hana (Korea) pair in the group stage to secure a favorable semifinal draw, did not follow Benford's Law.

Lawyer Jang also stated, "We need to start changing even the minor issues that have been carried out without awareness." For example, there is the rookie draft system. Currently, in South Korea's men's and women's professional basketball and volleyball leagues, lower-ranked teams are given a higher probability of winning the first pick in the draft lottery based on the reverse order of the previous season's standings. Because of this, some teams strategically give up the season to secure the first pick for the next year's rookie draft. Players and coaches have sometimes openly disclosed such plans to the media without hesitation. Although it may seem trivial, there are many concerns in the field that such attitudes could directly lead to match-fixing.