Impact on Leadership Depending on Kim Ki-hyun's Majority Vote
How Significant Are the 'Shy Ahn Cheol-soo' and 'Cheon Ha-ram Surge'?
Attention Also on Hwang Kyo-ahn's Approval Rating Amid 'Ulsan Land' Allegations
The party convention to elect the new leadership of the People Power Party will be held on the afternoon of the 8th at KINTEX in Ilsan, Gyeonggi Province. This convention succeeded in attracting attention with a record-high voter turnout, and the vote shares of each party leader candidate have become the main focus. If no candidate surpasses the majority in the first round of voting revealed on the day, a runoff vote will be held to elect the final party leader, and it is expected that the power dynamics within the party will be shaken depending on the vote shares.
According to political circles on the 8th, the camp of Kim Ki-hyun, the leading candidate for party leader, is confident that he will secure more than half of the votes in the first round. This convention saw 461,313 out of 837,236 party members participate, recording a high turnout of 55.10%, which they claim is the result of consolidated support for President Yoon Seok-yeol and candidate Kim. The final turnout in the previous party convention was 45.36%.
On the 13th, election posters of the People Power Party's 3rd party representative candidates and supreme council member candidates were posted in the corridor of the National Assembly main building in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@
If candidate Kim secures more than half of the votes in the first round as expected, it is anticipated that he will secure leadership for stable party management ahead of next year’s general election. As he has advocated for 'party-government unity,' he will also be able to secure momentum for President Yoon Seok-yeol’s state affairs management.
However, despite the full support of pro-Yoon (친윤·pro-Yoon Seok-yeol) faction lawmakers and the presidential office, if he fails to surpass the majority and proceeds to a runoff vote, his position as party leader could become precarious. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong said, "If Kim secures around 60% and another candidate around 40%, the party can be managed stably, but if the gap narrows to 55% and 45%, his leadership could be damaged."
Therefore, the silent majority of 'Shy Ahn Cheol-soo' voters is crucial. Ahn’s camp has claimed that many incumbent lawmakers support Kim during the day but back Ahn at night, calling it 'Daytime Kim, Nighttime Ahn.' Even if Ahn finishes second and loses, a high vote share would be seen as establishing his position within the party since last year’s merger. In this case, his future presidential ambitions are expected to proceed smoothly.
However, if he is also surpassed by Cheon Ha-ram, who entered the convention late and caused a stir, it could be a fatal blow to his political career. Ahn’s camp clashed with the presidential office by accusing it of interfering in the convention the day before and filed a complaint against Kang Seung-gyu, the presidential office’s chief of civil society affairs, with the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials. If Ahn records a lower-than-expected vote share, the pro-Yoon faction’s offensive could intensify.
On the 13th, election posters of the People Power Party's 3rd party representative candidates and supreme council member candidates were posted in the corridor of the National Assembly main building in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@
Cheon’s vote share is also a point of interest. Since Cheon is supported by former party leader Lee Jun-seok, his vote share can gauge Lee’s organizational support, and high support for Cheon could serve as a stepping stone for Lee’s comeback. Moreover, if even one of the top committee candidates or youth top committee candidates, referred to as 'Cheon-A-Yong-In (Cheon Ha-ram, Heo Eun-ah, Kim Yong-tae, Lee Gi-in),' is elected, Lee’s faction could check the pro-Yoon mainstream within the new leadership.
The vote share of candidate Hwang Kyo-ahn, who raised allegations of 'land speculation in Ulsan' against candidate Kim, could influence the runoff vote. Hwang officially formed an 'anti-Kim alliance' with candidate Ahn at a press conference the day before. If no candidate secures a majority in the convention, it is expected that Hwang’s supporters will consolidate their votes for Ahn in the runoff. Kim’s camp has requested an investigation into Hwang for spreading false information regarding the Ulsan land speculation allegations, and aftereffects are expected following the convention.
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