[Initial Moment] One Month After the Earthquake, Turkiye at a Crossroads

One Month After the Turkey Earthquake
Anger Toward President Erdogan
Will It Lead to the Presidential Election in Two Months?

International Team 1 Leader Hwang Junho

It has been a month since the earthquake struck Turkey. The death toll during this period has reached 51,000. While there have been miraculous survival stories, the reasons behind the scale of the damage have also been revealed. As a result, the arrows of anger have been directed at President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an. The outrage began when he visited the site only two days after the earthquake and said, "What is happening now is part of fate's plan," sparking public indignation. Western media view this anger as a potential weapon to end the dictator's rule in the presidential election scheduled two months later.

The main reason for the anger is that President Erdo?an's political ambitions created cracks in the national earthquake safety system. Despite institutional measures that could have minimized the damage, it is intolerable that these measures were undermined for the sake of maintaining power. In 2018, Erdo?an introduced exceptions to a law that mandated earthquake-resistant design. This was a move to target votes in the election. Since then, over 100,000 buildings in 10 provinces were exempted from applying earthquake-resistant design. Foreign media have analyzed that the policy of pardoning these regulations was a major factor in the buildings collapsing helplessly during this earthquake.

Another unforgivable aspect is that the military, which should have been involved in rescue efforts, arrived only two days after the earthquake. This too stemmed from political missteps. During his tenure, Erdo?an suppressed two military coups, weakened military power, and reduced the military's functions. According to Foreign Policy, after the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) was placed directly under the prime minister, 15 regional disaster-preparedness military commands were disbanded. Natural disaster support training, which had been ongoing since the early 2000s, was also terminated. After the 2016 military coup attempt, the mandatory command and military hospitals were abolished, resulting in a loss of medical support capabilities.

However, the seasoned dictator Erdo?an shows no sign of stepping down. He has begun efforts to divert Turkey's anger. First, he shifted responsibility for the earthquake to construction companies. Turkish police arrested 184 construction workers on charges of poor construction. He also blocked public gatherings. On the 7th of last month, a national state of emergency was declared, and universities switched to online classes. Foreign media evaluate this as a measure to prevent student gatherings.

Experts predict that Erdo?an will inflate the earthquake's scale going forward. This is a propaganda strategy to show fewer deaths. The U.S. foreign affairs journal Foreign Affairs forecasts, "He will use his influence to spread this message through 90% of Turkish media." He also exercises control over key institutions such as the Supreme Election Council (YSK), which oversees public opinion polls. He previously ordered the annulment of the Istanbul mayoral election in March 2019.

It remains uncertain whether Turkey's anger can overcome Erdo?an's repression and control as the presidential election approaches. For the approximately 2 million displaced people caused by this earthquake, food and shelter may be more urgent than political reform. However, at this point, resisting for the future is clearly the way to ensure that the deaths of victims are not in vain and to reduce future earthquake damage. Z?lf? Livaneli, a thinker exiled from Turkey, advises through his novel "The Last Island," which reflects his country's political reality: "From the beginning, say no to those who take the dictator's place. Resistance is noble."