The Democratic Party's 3·8 National Convention voter turnout surpasses 50%... Uncertain voter sentiment, what is the last-minute variable?

Possibility of No Party Leader Elected on the 8th
2-Person Runoff Vote Favors Kim Ki-hyun
Non-Yoon Faction "Presidential Interference in Party Leadership, Kim Ki-hyun Resign"

The People Power Party's 3·8 party convention succeeded in drawing the highest voter turnout in history solely through mobile member voting, receiving positive evaluations for its success. Additionally, with polls showing that candidate Kim Gi-hyeon still fails to achieve majority support in a multi-candidate race, the likelihood of a runoff vote is considered high. Attention is focused on whether the party leader will be decided at the upcoming convention on the 8th, which President Yoon Seok-yeol will attend in person.

According to the People Power Party on the 6th, as of 12 PM that day, the voter turnout for the party's 3rd convention was recorded at 50.49%. The mobile voting held on the 4th and 5th recorded a turnout of 47.51% (397,805 people), marking the highest level ever. The final turnout will be determined by combining the ARS (automated response system) voting conducted on the 6th and 7th, and the final results will be announced at the convention on the 8th afternoon. The previous party leader election in 2021 had a turnout of 45.36%. With expectations that the final turnout this time will exceed 60%, the ruling party is celebrating the success of the event. Jeong Jin-seok, the People Power Party's Emergency Response Committee Chairman, praised the event at the emergency meeting, saying, "We are rewriting the history of party democracy in a way never seen before."

Ahn Cheol-soo (from left), Hwang Kyo-ahn, Kim Ki-hyun, and Chun Ha-ram, candidates for the party leader of the People Power Party, are holding hands and greeting at the 3rd Party Convention Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi Joint Speech Meeting held at Goyang Gymnasium in Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do on the 2nd. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Candidate Kim Gi-hyeon Fails to Surpass Majority in Various Polls... Possibility of Runoff Vote

Inside and outside the party, the prevailing view is that the high turnout will lead to a runoff vote. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong analyzed, "If Kim Gi-hyeon were to win anyway, most party members probably would not have voted this much," adding, "It seems that members who want to support candidates Ahn Cheol-soo and Chun Ha-ram flocked to vote, raising the turnout."

However, the turnout of metropolitan area and 2030 generation party members who joined after former leader Lee Jun-seok's tenure, as well as the mobilization of traditional party members in Daegu and Gyeongbuk (TK), are expected to influence whether a runoff vote occurs. Park left room for possibility, saying, "There is also a chance that core party members voted in large numbers." Kim Jae-won, a candidate for the People Power Party's Supreme Council, said on the radio that day, "Voter convenience has increased, leading to higher turnout," and added, "While young people are good at mobile voting, in fact, even the elderly have tended to learn the mobile voting method a lot."

Recent poll results show that candidate Kim has not surpassed the majority. According to a survey conducted by polling agency Embrain Public on behalf of News1 from the 3rd to 4th of this month, targeting 378 People Power Party supporters among 1,007 men and women nationwide aged 18 and over (with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and ±5.04 percentage points for People Power Party supporters), Kim Gi-hyeon recorded 35.8% support for the next party leader, while Ahn Cheol-soo had 25.5%. Following were candidate Hwang Kyo-ahn with 9.6% and Chun Ha-ram with 8.1% support.

If Kim fails to surpass the majority in the main election and it proceeds to a runoff, analysis suggests Kim will have an advantage. This is because party members who supported candidates Ahn, Chun, and Hwang have different political orientations, making it unlikely they will support opposing candidates. It is expected that the votes of the three candidates will scatter while Kim's support base will consolidate. A People Power Party official said, "The extent of Kim's support in the runoff will greatly influence his standing as party leader," adding, "If there is not a significant difference even in the runoff, it will be difficult for him to fulfill the role of party leader."

Presidential Office 'Kim Gi-hyeon Support' Party Convention Intervention Controversy Becomes a Last-Minute Variable

Ahn Cheol-soo, the People Power Party's presidential candidate, is leaving after an emergency press conference held at the National Assembly Members' Office Building in Yeouido, Seoul, on the 6th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Because of this, there is speculation that the controversy over the Presidential Office's intervention in the party convention could become a last-minute variable in this convention. After a recording was reported in which a Presidential Office administrator directly asked party members for support of candidate Kim Gi-hyeon in a KakaoTalk chatroom, candidates Ahn Cheol-soo, Chun Ha-ram, and Hwang Kyo-ahn strongly opposed and demanded Kim's withdrawal. This is interpreted as an attempt to attract votes from the anti-Yoon (non-Yoon Seok-yeol) faction at the last minute.

Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo held an emergency press conference at the National Assembly Members' Office Building on the 6th, stating, "If true, this is a very serious issue as it means the Presidential Office intervened in the party leader election," and criticized, "It is a grave violation that damages party democracy and directly breaches Article 7 of the Constitution, which mandates political neutrality of public officials."

Ahn added, "We have a very painful scar imprinted on us from the case where a former president was convicted and sentenced to two years in prison," and said, "Despite such circumstances, the fact that the Presidential Office intervened in the party's internal election is shocking and beyond that, appalling."

Earlier, it was reported that a person from the Presidential Office's Civil Society Chief's office requested party members to distribute promotional materials supporting candidate Kim in a KakaoTalk group chat. It is said that recordings containing specific details have also been secured.

Ahn said, "The party must also take action," urging the Presidential Office to actively explain and for the Emergency Response Committee and Election Committee to step forward. If proven true, he said, "Kim must withdraw."

Candidate Hwang also stated, "Kim must withdraw immediately." On the same day, Hwang emphasized on his Facebook, "I knew this would happen," adding, "That is why I repeatedly warned about Kim Gi-hyeon going around claiming the president supports him and using the president for his own benefit."

Candidate Chun said that day, "Why is Kim Gi-hyeon causing such a big nuisance to the Presidential Office?" and added, "The Presidential Office administrator too. How much more embarrassment must be caused to party members?"

He further expressed, "How desperate must it have been to go this far? Kim Gi-hyeon himself is a nuisance candidate causing great harm to the president," and said, "We must correct this with the power of party members. We must defeat nuisance candidate Kim Gi-hyeon."