Ha Tae-kyung: "Lee Jae-myung Will Go to Prison Before Summer Vacation"

"20 Abstentions and Invalid Votes, Will Become Yes Votes Next Time"

In the recent vote on the arrest motion for Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, Rep. Ha Tae-kyung of the People Power Party, who had predicted more than 30 dissenting votes, forecasted that "before the summer vacation (June) arrives, Lee will be in prison." He suggested that for the Democratic Party to contest the general election as a unified body without splitting, Lee's detention must occur before summer.

On the 28th, Rep. Ha said on CBS's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show,' "There is a high possibility that another arrest motion will be submitted."

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is making a personal statement regarding the submission of a motion for his arrest at the plenary session held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul on the 27th. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

He added, "In the case of Ssangbangwool, the investigation has progressed significantly. There is a high chance that motion will come. At that time, Lee will have to go through some hardship. Then, even if the autumn is considered a civil war, by winter things will be settled and managed. That would be the schedule to contest the general election as a unified body without splitting."

However, he also predicted that if Lee's detention is delayed, the Democratic Party could split as a consequence. Rep. Ha said, "For example, if he is detained around this winter just before the general election, the aftermath could lead to a split because party members would not accept it. Even now, over 40% oppose Lee Jae-myung's detention, which is higher than the Democratic Party's approval rating. This means an overwhelming majority of Democratic Party members oppose the detention."

Rep. Ha had forecasted on MBC Radio on the 21st, a week before the vote, that "at least 35 dissenting votes will come from within the Democratic Party." In fact, at least 31 invalid votes came from within the Democratic Party in this vote, making his prediction a reality.

He cited voices from lawmakers he met in private as the basis for his prediction. Rep. Ha said, "I have heard that there are at least 31 plus alpha dissenters. Personally, when I meet lawmakers from both parties in private, there is resentment toward Han Dong-hoon (Minister of Justice). They say, 'Please present more definite and stronger evidence so that even if we support the arrest motion, we won't be criticized.'"

He explained that this recent 'mass dissent' was the result of tacit understanding. He said, "Since the party convention, there have been enough people who think we should not go down the path of 'defending the second Cho Kuk,' and it has been 7 to 8 months now. So, those lawmakers have probably reached a tacit consensus, and therefore the 20 abstentions and invalid votes this time will turn into affirmative votes next time."

The arrest motion is decided by a majority of the total members present, with more than half of the members present voting in favor. If the 9 abstentions and 11 invalid votes this time turn into affirmative votes, the motion will pass with 159 votes in favor. This is effectively a 'resignation pressure.' Rep. Ha said, "Lee and his close aides must be deeply troubled, and if they are reasonable people, they will resign. But since Lee's style is not very rational, I don't know what choice he will make."

Rep. Ha evaluated that this result also left concerns for the People Power Party. He said, "From a political engineering perspective, it is much better for Lee's leadership to continue. If Lee goes to prison, they will face a much stronger opponent (party leader), so someone needs to think more deeply about who can be the party leader to defeat the 'Democratic Party without Lee Jae-myung.'"